Today, after a plethora of controversies and U-turns, this awards season will be brought to a close as we celebrate the 91st Academy Awards. From the short-lived Most Popular Award, to the decisions to present some awards during the commercial breaks, only to (sensibly) go back on that, after a huge public outcry. I think many will be glad to put this award season behind us, but before we do, there are 24 golden statues to give out, and so I will now gaze into my crystal ball and predict who will be clutching one of those golden men come the end of the night, whilst also giving my own thoughts on each category (minus the documentaries and the shorts as I have not seen those).
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Christian Bale – Vice
- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
- Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Rami Malek’s transformative turn as the iconic Queen front man has won plaudits left, right and centre, and he has scooped pretty much every prize going so far. His performance completely elevates Bohemian Rhapsody, and if you took that and Queen’s music away, you’re left with a pretty by-the-numbers biopic. For Cooper, this is his fourth acting nomination and he’s mighty unlucky that his arguably career best performance in A Star is Born, will more than likely leave him going home empty-handed. Bale could spring an upset for his work in Vice but Malek will more than likely be the champion here.
Click here for a Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor collaboration post.
Will Win: Rami Malek
Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Should have been nominated: John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
- Glenn Close – The Wife
- Olivia Colman – The Favourite
- Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Despite a glittering career across several decades, Glenn Close has never tasted Oscar glory despite SEVEN nominations, so expect the Academy to right this wrong this year. That being said, all of these performances are excellent with Yalitza Aparicio getting her first nomination despite having never acted before. Lady Gaga brilliantly held her own opposite Bradley Cooper and Melissa McCarthy made a welcome switch to a more dramatic role, and it got a career best performance out of her in the process. I would love to see Olivia Colman, the Queen herself, scoop the prize as her performance in The Favourite was utterly hilarious, but this award belongs to Close.
Click here for a Best Actress collaboration post.
Will Win: Glenn Close
Should Win: Olivia Colman
Should have been nominated: Viola Davis (Widows)
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali – Green Book
- Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
- Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell – Vice
Sam Rockwell’s nomination here really sticks out like a sore thumb, he’s a very talented actor but his performance in Vice was nothing special. Sam Elliot, Adam Driver and Richard E Grant all (somehow) score their first nominations (hopefully the first of many for Driver). Though it was hard to understand him at times, Sam Elliot’s performance was so raw and emotional. Both Driver’s and Grant’s required a deft combination of humour, mixed in with some very serious drama, and both pulled this off with seemingly effortless ease. It has been impossible not to just fall in love with Grant as he has been such a delightful breath of fresh air across this campaign, and so a win for him would be a joyous moment. However, it seems unlikely that anyone will stop Mahershala Ali from taking his second Oscar for a refined performance in Green Book.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Adam Driver
Should have been nominated: Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams – Vice
- Marina de Tavira – Roma
- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone – The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Another crop of very strong performances across the board from all of these ladies makes picking a winner very hard, especially considering the amount of people who could have been nominated. Adams’s mission to land Oscar gold should be over already (see Arrival) but seeing as how I don’t run the Academy, her wait is likely to go on. Marina De Tavira’s performance was a very warm and charming one, but she doesn’t really stand a chance, as this is very much a battle between The Favourite ladies vs Ms Regina King. King has been taking the majority of the but a Rachel Weisz victory at the BAFTAs could sway it in her favour.
Click here for a Best Supporting Actress collaboration post.
Will Win: Regina King
Should Win: Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz
Could have been nominated: Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) or Claire Foy (First Man)
Best Director
- Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
- Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War
- Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
- Adam McKay – Vice
Spike Lee’s first ever directing nomination comes after making what is for me perhaps the most important film of the last twelve months so for this I would like to see him win. Lanthimos’s eccentric style of directing carried over to The Favourite, and there was a definite amount of visual flair and very interesting stylistic choices in his direction. The same cannot be said for Adam McKay. However, it seems certain that Cuaron will pick up his second directing Oscar this decade. Which, when you think about the two one take scenes that he so masterfully directed in Roma, it would be a richly deserved triumph for the Mexican maestro.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Should Win: Spike Lee
Should have been nominated: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Best Original Screenplay
- Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite
- Paul Schrader – First Reformed
- Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly – Green Book
- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
- Adam McKay – Vice
I make no apologies for bashing Vice again, but its presence in this awards season just bothers me something fierce. It had some good intentions, but it just came across as too full of itself and was just infuriating to watch. Cuaron crafted something so personal and so moving with Roma and The Favourite was just wickedly funny from start to finish. A Green Book triumph seems unlikely given the backlash the film has received from the relatives of Dr Shirley.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Favourite
Should have been nominated: Isle of Dogs
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
- Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters – A Star Is Born
If directing is going to be out of his reach, then this is the one category that Spike Lee, and his team of co-writers have GOT TO be victorious. BlacKkKlansman struck a fine balance between being when it wanted a very funny film, but it did not shy away from the hard-hitting heavy subject matter, and got extremely fierce and angry when it wanted to, and for good reason. The Coens are Academy favourites but the Ballad of Buster Scruggs was a bit hit or miss with some of its stories. Barry Jenkins seems unlikely to repeat his triumph in this category in 2017 and Can You Ever Forgive Me? may yet sneak an upset but this should be Spike Lee’s long overdue moment.
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could have been nominated: Steve McQueen and Gillian Flynn (Widows)
Best Animated Feature Film
- Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle – Incredibles 2
- Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson – Isle of Dogs
- Mamoru Hosoda and Yūichirō Saitō – Mirai
- Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer – Ralph Breaks the Internet
- Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Unlike last year, this is a much stronger selection of animated films. The power of Pixar so often prevails here, but it seems as though everyone’s friendly neighbourhood Spider-Man of the animated variety will seize the crown away from Disney. I think I’m one of the few who is championing Wes Anderson’s charming Isle of Dogs, but a win seems unlikely as my spider sense is telling me that Miles Morales and his crew of Spider-beings will swing home with Oscar gold.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should Win: Isle of Dogs
Best Original Score
- Ludwig Göransson – Black Panther
- Terence Blanchard – BlacKkKlansman
- Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Alexandre Desplat – Isle of Dogs
- Marc Shaiman – Mary Poppins Returns
Re-teaming with Barry Jenkins after his Oscar nominated work in Moonlight, Nicholas Britell did it again creating a score that was both beautiful and melancholic, capturing the joy and despair of the main characters beautifully. But by far one of the biggest snubs here was for Justin Hurwitz’s First Man score, which had it been nominated would surely have come back down to earth to win the statue. Ludwig Göransson’s wonderful work for Black Panther is also very much worthy of the gong, as it was grounded in the beauty of the continent of Africa.
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: Black Panther
Could have been nominated: Justin Hurwitz for First Man
Best Original Song
- “All the Stars” from Black Panther – Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith; Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solána Rowe
- “I’ll Fight” from RBG – Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
- “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns – Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyrics by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman
- “Shallow” from A Star Is Born – Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt
- “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Music and Lyrics by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Though I love “All the Stars”, nothing is stopping Lady Gaga here. Given that the Best Actress statue will likely be out of her reach, this is one award Gaga will be deservedly holding at the end of the night. The moment in ASIB when she sings “Shallow” with Cooper in the film, chills down my spine.
Will Win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
Should Win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
Should have been nominated: “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star is Born
Best Sound Editing
- Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker – Black Panther
- John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan – First Man
- Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl – A Quiet Place
- Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay – Roma
For a film that has its central premise based on sound, it would be nice to see the brilliant work of the A Quiet Place team get rewarded, considering it was such a key aspect of the film that it should be sneaking away quietly with the gold. However, it faces stiff competition from First Man as those space scenes were stunningly recreated. A Bohemian triumph could be on the cards also as that Live Aid scene was stunning to behold.
Will Win: First Man
Should Win: A Quiet Place
Best Sound Mixing
- Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter J. Devlin – Black Panther
- Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis – First Man
- Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia – Roma
- Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve A. Morrow – A Star is Born
The absence of A Quiet Place here is quite perplexing. Therefore, like with Sound editing, this is likely to be a battle between Queen and their iconic Live Aid performance and the sound wizardry that made the space scenes in First Man such so utterly captivating to watch.
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: First Man
Should have been nominated: A Quiet Place
Best Production Design
- Black Panther – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart
- The Favourite – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
- First Man – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
- Mary Poppins Returns – Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
- Roma – Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez
To make Wakanda, this wonderful futuristic utopia feel like a place on this Earth is a credit to the wonderful production design. By a similar token, to capture 18th century England with such authenticity gives The Favourite a very strong shot. Expect this to be a battle between the two Best Picture nominees, with the period drama emerging victorious.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Could have been nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale
Best Cinematography
- Łukasz Żal – Cold War
- Robbie Ryan – The Favourite
- Caleb Deschanel – Never Look Away
- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
- Matthew Libatique – A Star Is Born
To make a black and white film feel like it was full of colour is credit to the brilliant work that Cuaron did as cinematographer as well as the director, so as well as a likely Director triumph, I expect to see a Cuaron victory here. The Favourite also boasted some absolutely gorgeous visuals and a very unique visual aesthetic, but Roma is Cuaron’s personal masterpiece and it deserves the accolade.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma
Should have been nominated: Rachel Morrison for Black Panther
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer – Border
- Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks – Mary – Queen of Scots
- Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney – Vice
The one thing I can give give Vice credit for, is the make up. Much like last year with Gary Oldman, Christian Bale disappeared under all that make up and it gave his performance so much authenticity, that I can begrudgingly accept Vice’s probable triumph here, though Mary Queen of Scots could yet pull off an unlikely upset.
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: Vice
Best Costume Design
- Mary Zophres – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther
- Sandy Powell – The Favourite
- Sandy Powell – Mary Poppins Returns
- Alexandra Byrne – Mary – Queen of Scots
The Oscars do love a good period drama, which would suggest this is a battle between Queen Anne and Mary Stuart. Both period dramas did have sumptous costumes but its Best Picture status gives The Favourite the edge in this respect, but the bright and colourful wardrobe of Black Panther gives it a fighting chance of usurping the English (and Scottish) royalty and taking the trophy.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Best Film Editing
- Barry Alexander Brown – BlacKkKlansman
- John Ottman – Black Panther
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis – The Favourite
- Patrick J. Don Vito – Green Book
- Hank Corwin – Vice
The nominations here are just confusing, really really confusing. Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody??!! Say what now? This makes First Man’s exclusion all the more baffling given how so well-edited that was. Its absence therefore makes me pine for a victory for either BlacKkKlansman or The Favourite as the editing in those two was actually worthy of the nomination. One of the best edited films of 2018 was Mission Impossible: Fallout but it is nowhere to be seen in this year’s nominations.
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: The Favourite
Should have been nominated: First Man AND Mission Impossible: Fallout
Best Visual Effects
- Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick – Avengers: Infinity War
- Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould – Christopher Robin
- Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J. D. Schwalm – First Man
- Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk – Ready Player One
- Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy – Solo: A Star Wars Story
The juggernaut that was Avengers: Infinity War was a visual effects extravaganza and the effects on display are such an essential part of the film and were so well done that they should be clutching that trophy come the end of the night. However, it does have some stiff competition from the also very effects heavy Ready Player One, and the utterly magnificent Lunar landing scene in First Man should also put that into contention. The power of the Infinity Stones propels Infinity War to success and turn the competitors into dust.
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should have been nominated: Black Panther
And last but certainly not least….
Best Picture
- Black Panther – Kevin Feige
- BlacKkKlansman – Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
- Bohemian Rhapsody – Graham King
- The Favourite – Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
- Green Book – Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
- Roma – Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuarón
- A Star Is Born – Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
- Vice – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin J. Messick
Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.
As I laid out in my ranking of the Best Picture nominees, three of these films really don’t belong on this list (can you work out which three?) The thought of any of those aforementioned three winning is an utterly horrifying one that doesn’t bear thinking about, but they could do it, which would not make me a happy bunny. But, rather than dwell on that, let’s talk about the five that I want to win.
Though it shone brightly when it arrived in cinemas last year, the star power of A Star is Born has dimmed somewhat, and in doing so has likely hampered its chances of Best Picture glory. Though its nomination is historic, Black Panther and his vibranium is unlikely to win the top award. The themes and the power of the story give BlacKkKlansman maybe a fighting chance. The Favourite has indeed been a favourite (ha ha!) across this awards season so it could be a battle between that and Roma. Though Roma’s status as a Netflix film could potentially cause problems with some members of the Academy, so who knows but given its likely directing triumph, I see this one going to Roma, which will definitely cause a ripple or two, given how some directors have poured scorn on the idea of a Netflix film competing for Oscar glory. Though BlacKkKlansman is the film I want to see triumph, Roma would be richly deserving of the accolade.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should have been nominated: Widows and First Man
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Final counts
Will win:
- Roma: 3
- The Favourite: 3
- Bohemian Rhapsody: 2
- Vice: 2
- If Beale Street Could Talk: 2
- Avengers: Infinity War: 1
- A Star is Born: 1
- BlacKkKlansman: 1
- First Man: 1
- Green Book: 1
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: 1
- The Wife: 1
Should win:
- BlacKkKlansman: 4
- The Favourite: 4
- Black Panther: 3
- A Star is Born: 2
- A Quiet Place: 1
- Avengers: Infinity War: 1
- First Man: 1
- Isle of Dogs: 1
- Roma: 1
- Vice: 1