Posted in 2010-2019, Film Feature

90th Academy Awards: Predictions

Hollywood’s biggest night is upon us once again, and the Academy celebrates it’s 90th birthday. For such a significant milestone in the Academy’s history, it is extremely fitting then there is a plethora of really good films that are up for the big prizes this year. A story about a woman who falls in love with a fish man, a film about the power of advertising, a return to the world of replicants, a journalism drama, the story of the Dunkirk evacuation, a love story set in 1980s Italy and a film about a dress designer that marks the final on screen performance of the legendary Daniel Day Lewis. Of course, for all the great films there can only be one winner in every category and so it is time to predict the winners in the majority of the categories (I have not seen the documentaries and animated shorts) and chime in with my own thoughts on who should take home that coveted golden statue come the end of the night.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Timothée Chalamet Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-LewisPhantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya Get Out
  • Gary Oldman Darkest Hour
  • Denzel WashingtonRoman J. Israel, Esq.

It is looking likely that this will be the occasion that Gary Oldman finally strikes Oscar gold, for a transformative, mesmerising turn as Winston Churchill. He’s been sweeping the board throughout this awards season and it would be more than deserved. At times, you forgot it was him under all that make up, his captivating performance binds the whole film together, and it would be a major surprise if Oldman is not victorious.

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Gary Oldman

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Sally Hawkins The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormandThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie I, Tonya
  • Saoirse RonanLady Bird
  • Meryl StreepThe Post

It’s a similar story with the leading actress category as McDormand has also been sweeping the board with her terrific and heartbreaking work as a mother desperately seeking answers over her child’s murder. That being said, Saorise Ronan could be something of an underdog with her beautiful performance. What’s more to say, for a film in which she has no dialogue, Sally Hawkins should also not be ruled out. A victory for any of these three would be more than worthy but the writing is on the billboard for McDormand and she should take home her 2nd Oscar.

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Sally Hawkins

Could have been nominated: Vicki Krieps for Phantom Thread

Best Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Billboards’s domination should continue here as much like the preceding two categories, Rockwell has been cleaning house and is the hot favourite to win his first Oscar. His work in Billboards was extraordinary and despite the excellent efforts of all the gentlemen nominated in this category with him, this is most definitely Rockwell’s to lose.

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Could have been nominated: Harrison Ford for Blade Runner 2049

Best Supporting Actress 

  • Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
  • Allison Janney – I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

The last acting category and another very likely triumph, this time for Alison Janney. Her work as the vicious mother of Tonya Harding was uncompromising, yet at the same time very funny. Yet one could feel that Laurie Metcalf’s work opposite Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird was the much more sincere performance as a mother who also wants what’s best for her daughter but tries to be a little bit more compassionate about it. Like the previous acting categories, Janney has definitely got this one wrapped up.

Will Win: Allison Janney 

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

Could have been nominated: Holly Hunter for The Big Sick

Best Director

  • Christopher NolanDunkirk
  • Jordan PeeleGet Out
  • Greta GerwigLady Bird
  • Paul Thomas AndersonPhantom Thread
  • Guillermo del ToroThe Shape of Water

Meshing three inter-weaving storylines and making them all flow seamlessly is an extraordinary feat of directorial mastery, and for that Nolan could yet take his FIRST Oscar (err what?!!?). Yet this one is seemingly heading towards Del Toro. Though that would not be an undeserving win for an extraordinary film-maker, there is fierce competition from both Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele, both of whom made their directorial debuts in almighty style. But the odds are in Del Toro’s favour.

Will Win:  Guillermo del Toro 

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Could have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay 

  • The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
  • Get Out – Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
  • The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh

Five very strong screenplays, any of these would be a worthy winner, but it seems as though it’s a race between Get Out and Three Billboards. Peele’s screenplay is razor sharp in terms of its humour and very relevant social commentary that makes it a hot favourite, and deservedly so. That being said, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri also balances the extremely dark nature of its subject matter, and injects it with extremely black humour that hits the mark. It could be a very close call.

Will Win:  Get Out

Should Win:  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could have been nominated: Coco

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Call Me by Your NameJames Ivory 
  • The Disaster ArtistScott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
  • LoganScott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
  • Molly’s GameAaron Sorkin
  • MudboundVirgil Williams and Dee Rees

Call Me By Your Name has been pretty much sweeping this category across this awards season and so its success here is looking almost guaranteed. It is somewhat surprising to see a superhero film nominated, but that is a testament to the sheer quality of Logan’s screenplay that it deserves its place here and in another year, might have even taken home the gold.

Will Win:  Call Me by Your Name 

Should Win: Logan

Could have been nominated: Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Feature Film 

  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand 
  • Loving Vincent 

In contrast to last year, this is something of a weak category for animation. The power of Pixar will get Coco through here. Though the omission of the Lego Batman Movie proves that the Academy must have a vendetta against Lego for some strange reason.

Will Win:  Coco

Should Win: Coco

Should have been nominated: The Lego Batman Movie

Best Original Score 

  • DunkirkHans Zimmer
  • Phantom ThreadJonny Greenwood
  • The Shape of WaterAlexandre Desplat
  • Star Wars: The Last JediJohn Williams
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriCarter Burwell

Zimmer’s score certainly helped to add massive amounts of tension to Dunkirk. But the work of Desplat goes hand in hand with the beautiful work that you see on screen. Though Jonny Greenwood’s work on Phantom Thread is equally mesmerising so it’s by no means a foregone conclusion.

Will Win:  The Shape of Water

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Could have been nominated: Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Song 

  • “Mighty River” from Mudbound – Music and Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
  • “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name – Music and Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens
  • “Remember Me” from Coco – Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
  • “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall – Music by Diane Warren; Lyrics by Common and Diane Warren
  • “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman – Music and Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

This seems to be a battle between “This is Me” and “Remember Me” though “Mystery of Love” could certainly pull off an upset. With music being a central part of Coco, that could give it an edge but “This is Me” seems the most likely to triumph

Will Win:  “This is Me” from Greatest Showman

Should Win: “Remember Me” from Coco

Best Sound Editing

The sound categories this year seem to be a battle between the slick and stylish work of Baby Driver versus the heart-pounding intensity of Dunkirk. The work done by both these teams is very impressive, but Dunkirk‘s technical mastery should be enough to get it home with the Oscar in tow.

Will Win:  Dunkirk

Should Win: Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing

  • Baby Driver Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
  • Blade Runner 2049Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
  • DunkirkMark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker and Gary A. Rizzo
  • The Shape of WaterChristian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
  • Star Wars: The Last JediDavid Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson

As with the Sound Editing category, it is Dunkirk VS Baby Driver and as before, though either would be more than a worthy winner, Dunkirk’s sound wizardry is second to none.

Will Win:  Dunkirk

Should Win: Dunkirk

Best Production Design 

  • Beauty and the Beast – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
  • Blade Runner 2049 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Alessandra Querzola
  • Darkest Hour – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
  • Dunkirk – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
  • The Shape of Water – Production Design: Paul Denham Austerberry; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin

To take the world of Los Angeles in the future and have it look so dazzlingly authentic gives Blade Runner 2049  a real shot at winning. However in a similar vein, fusing the fantastical elements of the story with the gritty nature of 1960s Cold War America gives Shape of Water a real chance of taking the award out of the hands of those replicants.

Will Win:  Blade Runner 2049

Should Win: Dunkirk

Best Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049Roger Deakins
  • Darkest HourBruno Delbonnel
  • DunkirkHoyte van Hoytema
  • MudboundRachel Morrison
  • The Shape of WaterDan Laustsen

Simply put, #DeakinsorRiot. One of the finest cinematographers ever is due on Oscar and this better be the one that gives him the damn statue after 14 previous attempts.

Will Win:  Roger Deakins

Should Win: Roger Deakins

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

  • Darkest Hour Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
  • Victoria & AbdulDaniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
  • WonderArjen Tuiten

As previously mentioned, the extraordinary work that helped transform Mr Oldman into Mr Churchill should ensure Darkest Hour is triumphant.

Will Win:  Darkest Hour

Should Win: Darkest Hour

Best Costume Design 

  • Beauty and the BeastJacqueline Durran
  • Darkest HourJacqueline Durran
  • Phantom ThreadMark Bridges
  • The Shape of Water Luis Sequeira
  • Victoria & AbdulConsolata Boyle

The dresses that were on display in Phantom Thread were sumptuous in their design and while the work done by Jacqueline Durran in Darkest Hour and Beauty and the Beast deserves plaudits, this one belongs to Phantom Thread.

Will Win:  Phantom Thread

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Film Editing

  • Baby Driver Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
  • DunkirkLee Smith
  • I, TonyaTatiana S. Riegel
  • The Shape of WaterSidney Wolinsky
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriJon Gregory

When you take a film that intertwines 3 differing story-lines and it is all edited so brilliantly that should be more than enough to ensure that Dunkirk flies home with this Oscar.

Will Win:  Dunkirk

Should Win: Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049 John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
  • Kong: Skull IslandStephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
  • War for the Planet of the ApesJoe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist

Aside from the fact that the remarkable work Andy Serkis has done with this revived Apes trilogy should have ensured he at the very least got nominated, the work that is done on these films has been extraordinary and deserves to be recognised. That being said, Blade Runner 2049 will probably take this one home. Also why on earth is Kong: Skull Island here?

Will Win:  Blade Runner 2049

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Could have been nominated: Thor: Ragnarok

And last but certainly not least….

Best Picture

  • Call Me by Your Name Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, and Marco Morabito
  • Darkest HourTim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten, and Douglas Urbanski
  • Dunkirk Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., and Jordan Peele
  • Lady BirdScott Rudin, Eli Bush, and Evelyn O’Neill
  • Phantom Thread JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi
  • The PostAmy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, and Kristie Macosko Krieger
  • The Shape of WaterGuillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriGraham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, and Martin McDonagh

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

An incredibly stacked year, full of some terrific works and usually there is one film that is a clear runaway favourite, but not so this year as there are a few that have a legitimate shot at taking home the biggest prize of the night.  Three Billboards will undoubtedly be buoyed by its BAFTA and SAG victories but success for The Shape of Water at the Critics Choice and Producer’s Guild of America Awards, highlights the unpredictability of this year’s crop. Though usually it requires a Best Director nomination to stand a good chance of scooping Best Picture, Three Billboards might just defy that expectation and become only the fifth film to win without a Best Director nomination. However, my hope is that The Shape of Water will emerge triumphant, it would go nicely with Del Toro’s probable victory in the director category, but this is extremely close to call.

Will Win:  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Could have been nominated: Blade Runner 2049

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