Category: Oscars

Posted in 2020-2029, Awards Season, Film Feature, Oscars

97th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Another awards season is drawing to a close and Hollywood’s biggest night is upon us once again as the world of film prepares to celebrate the 97th Academy Awards. This year’s ceremony will undoubtedly be filled with all the usual glitz and glamour, but through it all, there will be an air of sombreness as the wildfires earlier this year caused massive devastation in their wake with countless homes destroyed. The ceremony is set to honour the city of Los Angeles and pay will also be “highlighting the strength, creativity, and optimism that defines Los Angeles”. My heart goes out to all affected by this terrible tragedy.

As the old saying goes, the show must go on, and there are 23 Oscars up for grabs, so who will have their name etched into one of those gold statuettes and etch their name into history? Here are my predictions for the 2025 Oscars. Sadly, my predictions will not include the documentaries or the short films, as I haven’t had the time to watch them.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Monica Barbaro  – A Complete Unknown 
  • Ariana Grande  – Wicked 
  • Felicity Jones – The Brutalist 
  • Isabella Rossellini  – Conclave
  • Zoe Saldaña  – Emilia Pérez

Kicking us off, we have the first acting race and much like last year, this is pretty much a guaranteed lock. Apart from Felicity Jones, all the other nominees are receiving their first nominations, which is always beautiful to see. She doesn’t appear in the film until after the intermission, but Jones more than makes her presence known once she does arrive. Monica Barbaro delivers a very compelling performance as folk music singer Joan Baez opposite Timothee Chalamet’s Bob Dylan. While she has comparatively the least amount of screen time as her fellow nominees, Rossellini leaves a lasting impression. Grande made a seamless transition from certified popstar to one half of the wonderful Wicked double act that effortlessly charmed audiences and no doubt had them singing “Popular” and “Defying Gravity” for days on end. For that reason, I would love to see her win, but I don’t see it happening.

Even with the controversy that has engulfed the Emilia Pérez campaign in recent weeks (more on that later), Zoe Saldaña has not let it derail her own campaign. She has been a prominent figure in the industry for several years with her work in the Avatar franchise and the Marvel Cinematic Universe which has made her one of the highest-grossing actresses of all time. She has swept all before her this awards season and it is guaranteed that she will get an Oscar, I just wish it was for a better film.

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña

Should Win: Isabella Rossellini

Could have been nominated: Margaret Qualley for The Substance

Best Animated Feature Film

  • Flow – Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman 
  • Inside Out 2   – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen 
  • Memoir of a Snail   – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney 
  • Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl  – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek
  • The Wild Robot  – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann

Throughout this year’s awards season, this category has been consistent, with these five films consistently competing in this category. Since this award began in 2001, on only eight occasions has a film which has not been made by Disney or its subsidiary Pixar emerged triumphant, with two of those wins coming in the last two years with the triumphs of Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and The Boy and the Heron. The predecessors to both Inside Out 2 and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl both took home the Oscar. However, those emotions will need to keep themselves in check as neither they nor everyone’s favourite Northern inventor and his lovable mute dog will replicate their success, despite the latter’s success as Bafta, as this award should have The Wild Robot‘s name on it and becomes Dreamworks’ third win after The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Shrek.

Will Win: The Wild Robot 

Should Win: The Wild Robot 

Best Original Screenplay

  • Anora   – Written by  Sean Baker 
  • The Brutalist  – Written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold 
  • A Real Pain  – Written by Jesse Eisenberg
  • September 5  – Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David 
  • The Substance  – Written by Coralie Fargeat 

Given that this represents its only nomination, September 5 is unlikely to cause an upset here. Also without an Oscar nomination, it should be enough to count Jesse Eisenberg’s moving and contemplative story about two cousins travelling around Europe to honour their late grandmother out of the race. However, the film’s success at BAFTA could be a sign that it has gained momentum at just the right time and upstage one of the three Best Picture contenders in this race. If anyone says there are no more original ideas left in Hollywood these days, these three excellent films demonstrate that this simply isn’t the case.

The Brutalist themes of striving to create something that will leave a lasting impression and the immigrant experience of trying to fulfil the American Dream are incredibly timely, while Coralie Fargeat’s script is filled with biting social satire on the pressures women to maintain their beauty standards as they get older. I would love to see her triumph but I think for his hilarious and chaotic take on a classic Cinderella story, this is Baker’s to lose.

Will Win: Anora 

Should Win: The Substance 

Should have been nominated: Justin Kuritzkes for Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • A Complete Unknown   – Written by James Mangold and Jay Cocks 
  • Conclave  – Written by Peter Straughan 
  • Emilia Pérez   – Written by Jacques Audiard in collaboration with Thomas Bidegainm, Lea Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi 
  • Nickel Boys – Written by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes 
  • Sing Sing  – Written by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield

If the Best Picture lineup had been a bit different, this could have been a spicy race featuring five Best Picture nominees. However, since Sing Sing unfortunately didn’t obtain that Best Picture nomination, its chances of winning are sadly slim to none. Simply given the fact that the Mexican and transgender community have voiced their criticism against the film, Emilia Pérez‘s already fading hopes are now all but gone. A Complete Unknown is unlikely to surprise here too as the last musical biopic to win here was Amadeus in 1985.

Had Nickel Boys got more nominations, it might have stood more of a chance here but nothing is going to stop Peter Straughan from adding to his triumph at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA for his adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel. A dialogue-driven film such as Conclave wouldn’t have worked if the script wasn’t as brilliant as it was.

However, given the first film got a screenplay nod the lack of nomination for Dune: Part Two has me scratching my head, especially as many consider it to be a better film than its predecessor. Clearly, the spice didn’t flow sufficiently enough for the Academy…

Will Win: Conclave

Should Win: Conclave

Should have been nominated: Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • A Different Man –Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado
  • Emilia Pérez – Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
  • Nosferatu – David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
  • The Substance  –Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli
  • Wicked  – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth

Despite some truly excellent work from the hair and makeup teams of Wicked and Nosferatu, anyone who has seen the third and bonkers final act of The Substance will realise that there is only one winner here, particularly as this category so often correlates with one of the acting categories.

Will Win:  The Substance

Should Win: The Substance

Should have been nominated: Dune: Part Two

Best Production Design

  • The Brutalist  – Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
  • Conclave – Production Design: Suzy Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter 
  • Dune: Part Two – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
  • Nosferatu  – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
  • Wicked  – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Given Wicked is unlikely to garner much success in the major categories, I anticipate the Academy will look to reward it in some of the technical categories, and the filmmakers’ emphasis on practical sets is likely to help them fly to victory here.

Will Win: Wicked 

Should Win: Wicked

Best Costume Design

  • A Complete Unknown  – Arianne Phillips 
  • Conclave  – Lisy Christl
  • Gladiator II  – Janty Yates and David Crossman 
  • Nosferatu   – Linda Muir  
  • Wicked  – Paul Tazewell 

The Academy loves a period piece, so Nosferatu could be a blood-sucking spoiler on Wicked’s parade here, but I expect the bright and memorable costumes on display should be enough to repel the villainous Count back into the darkness from whence he came and take the Oscar.

Will Win: Wicked 

Should Win: Wicked

Should have been nominated: Jacqueline West for Dune: Part Two

Best International Feature Film

  • Emilia Pérez  (France)  – directed by Jacques Audiard
  • Flow (Latvia)  – directed by Gints Zilbalodis
  • The Girl with the Needle  (Denmark)  – directed by Magnus von Horn
  • I’m Still Here  (Brazil)  – directed by Walter Salles
  • The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)  – directed by Mohammad Rasoulof

As the two Best Picture contenders, this is a straight fight between Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here. The controversy surrounding the former was happening during the voting, and while it could be the flip of a coin, I fully expect this will sink any chances it had of winning what would have seemed like a sure bet mere weeks ago.

Will Win: I’m Still Here

Should Win: I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

 

  • Yura Borisov – Anora
  • Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
  • Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
  • Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
  • Jeremy Strong  – The Apprentice

Much like the Supporting Actress category, four of the five nominees are first-time nominees, with Edward Norton collecting his fourth nomination. Borisov becomes the first Russian to be nominated for an Oscar since 1977, and a richly deserved nomination for giving humanity to a henchman, which is not an easy feat. The fact this is Pearce’s first nomination is massively surprising given his prolific career, and as talented as Norton undoubtedly is, this shouldn’t and won’t be the film that ends his wait for a first Oscar.

What is the most eye-catching fact about this race is that after years starring for years as Kendall and Roman Roy in HBO’s Succession, Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin will be swapping boardroom drama for awards drama. Not for the first time either, as they went toe-to-toe with each other during the Emmys in 2023. Strong’s portrayal of the vulgar and unpleasant lawyer Roy Cohn showcases Cohn’s thoroughly repulsive character, yet he manages to add a layer of sympathy for someone we should have not one iota of sympathy for, given Cohn helped to create the monster that his protege became, while Culkin plays a not nearly as rich version of Roman Roy.

I would love to see one of Guy Pearce or Jeremy Strong win, but much like the Emmys race, Culkin will get the better of his on-screen brother as he has swept all before him in this awards season and will put him halfway towards becoming an EGOT.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin 

Should Win: Guy Pearce

Could have been nominated: Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing or Denzel Washington for Gladiator II 

Best Visual Effects

  • Alien: Romulus  –  Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan
  • Better Man  – Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs
  • Dune: Part Two  – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer 
  • Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke
  • Wicked  – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould

In a competition between Xenomorphs, incredibly realistic CGI apes, the wild animals of Oz and Sandworms, the power of the sandworms should be power over all of its competitors.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Win: Dune: Part Two 

 

Best Cinematography

  • The Brutalist   – Lol Crawley
  • Dune: Part Two  – Greig Fraser 
  • Emilia Pérez – Paul Guilhaume
  • Maria – Ed Lachman
  • Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke

Another nomination for Emilia Pérez which has me scratching my head, as while the cinematography wasn’t bad, it pales in comparison to the brilliant work of the other four cinematographers on display here. Fraser’s work on Dune: Part Two is mesmerising to look at and could very well bag him another Oscar after he won for his work on the first Dune film. Ed Lachman collects his fourth nomination and is his film’s sole shot at bagging an Oscar, while Jarin Blaschke continues to reap the rewards of his incredible partnership with Robert Eggers. His work in Nosferatu was truly atmospheric and haunting and should be a stake through the heart of its competitors.

However, Lol Crawley’s breathtaking work, shooting the film in VistaVision revived that format, and the results were simply stunning to look at.

Will Win: The Brutalist 

Should Win: Nosferatu

Could have been nominated:  Stéphane Fontaine for Conclave Sayombhu Mukdeeprom for Challengers 

Best Original Score

  • The Brutalist  – Daniel Blumberg 
  • Conclave  – Volker Bertelmann 
  • Emilia Pérez – Clément Ducol and Camille
  • Wicked  – John Powell and Camille Stephen Schwartz
  • The Wild Robot  – Kris Bowers 

Justice for Hans Zimmer, who should have been nominated and be winning again for his magnificent work on Dune: Part Two, yet he was disqualified as it failed to meet the eligibility requirements, as Academy rules state that a nominee must have at least 80% original content in their composition. I would love to see Kris Bowers win for his wonderful work on The Wild Robot, while past winner Volker Bertelmann’s string-heavy score is also a contender, the “Overture” track from The Brutalist, which plays during that very memorable intro scene as Laszlo Toth arrives in the USA, is undeniably powerful and so that will probably propel Blumberg to victory.

Will Win: The Brutalist 

Should Win: The Wild Robot

Should have been nominated: Hans Zimmer for Dune: Part Two 

Best Sound

  • A Complete Unknown  – Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
  • Dune: Part Two – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill
  • Emilia Pérez – Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
  • Wicked  – Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis
  • The Wild Robot – Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts

Anyone who felt the thunderous roar of the sandworms, particularly in IMAX, will know there should be no contest here.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Should have been nominated: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Original Song

  • “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez – Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard
  • “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight – Music and lyrics by Dianne Warren
  • “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing – Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
  • “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez – Music and lyrics by Clément Ducol and Camille
  • “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late –  Music and lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin

Another year, another nomination for Dianne Warren, which brings her total number of nominations to 16 without a single victory. Surely her run of no victories has to come to an end at some point, but it will not be this year as this award will unfortunately go to one of the two songs from Emilia Pérez. Although, two songs from Emilia Pérez received nominations, while Maren Morris’s beautiful “Kiss The Sky” from The Wild Robot has been snubbed will remain as mystifying as how Emilia Perez got all those nominations in the first place.

Will Win: Emilia Pérez

Should Win: Sing Sing

Should have been nominated: “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

Best Film Editing

  • Anora – Sean Baker 
  • The Brutalist  –  Dávid Jancsó
  • Conclave – Nick Emerson 
  • Emilia Pérez – Juliette Welfling
  • Wicked – Myron Kerstein

Sound and editing often go hand in hand here, but given Dune: Part Two is nowhere to be found here, this feels like all of the nominees have a shot. Musicals like Emilia Perez and Wicked have very flashy editing, while Sean Baker’s editing for Anora helps the film to be the wild chaotic ride that it is, I do feel it stalls a little bit towards the end. Even with the built-in intermission, to make three-and-a-half hours fly by is a testament to Dávid Jancsó’s work on The Brutalist, so that could prevail here. However, Conclave’s editing is taut and well-paced in a very dialogue-driven film, so the divine powers that be should help it win here.

Will Win: Conclave 

Should Win: Conclave

Best Director

  • Sean Baker – Anora
  • Brady Corbet   – The Brutalist
  • James Mangold  – A Complete Unknown
  • Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
  • Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

There was much speculation on nominations morning as to whether Coralie Fargeat would miss out on a nomination, but thankfully, she secured a well-deserved nomination and became only the tenth woman to be nominated in this category. I would love to see her become the fourth woman to win and follow in the footsteps of Kathryn Bigelow, Chloe Zhao and Jane Campion, for her bold and brilliant satirical body horror, but this race is essentially a battle between Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. There is a chance Baker could, assuming my prediction is correct, add this award to his potential screenplay win. Although, given what Corbet managed to accomplish with his vast and ambitious historical epic, and on a budget of just $10m, that is a seriously impressive achievement and so I have a sneaky feeling that may just tip the scales in Corbet’s favour and ensure he adds to his BAFTA win. Much as though I want Fargeat to win, which is really saying something for me as I am most definitely not an avid horror fan, Corbet would be a deserving winner.

Although, yet again, how the Academy has failed to recognise the phenomenal accomplishment of Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two when he made the best film of last year is just… le sigh 

Will Win: Brady Corbet 

Should Win: Brady Corbet

Could have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two or Edward Berger for Conclave

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
  • Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez 
  • Mikey Madison  – Anora
  • Demi Moore – The Substance  
  • Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Unlike the supporting actor categories which are pretty much foregone conclusions. there is a chance the other two acting categories could throw up some surprises. Best Actress, in particular, is looking like it might be heading that way, but there is still a chance for something unpredictable to happen. First of all, despite the controversy surrounding her old tweets, Gascon’s nomination is historic as she is the first openly transgender actor to be nominated for an Academy Award, which is historic and hopefully the first of many more to come. The controversy surrounding her means she is unlikely to win. Erivo’s nomination is also significant as she became only the second black woman, after Viola Davis, to receive multiple nominations in this category, which shows there is much progress to be made. However, she too is probably unlikely to win as this is shaping up to be a battle between industry veteran Moore and relative newcomer Madison.

Moore has a slight advantage following her wins at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards, and she continued that streak with a win at BAFTA, this likely would have also been a nailed-on win for Moore, yet Madison’s win at BAFTA has catapulted her back into the race. Although with her win at the Screen Actors Guild awards, Moore clearly has the love and backing of her fellow actors, plus has the comeback narrative on her side as well and we have seen in recent years that translate into a win. Chaos can very easily ensue with this award but, Moore should come through.

Will Win: Demi Moore

Should Win: Demi Moore

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Adrien Brody – The Brutalist 
  • Timothee Chalamet  – A Complete Unknown
  • Colman Domingo – Sing Sing  
  • Ralph Fiennes  – Conclave
  • Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice 

Much like with Best Actress, this race between these five gentlemen is looking like it is pointing towards a foregone conclusion. It was always going to be interesting – given the current resident in the White House – if the Academy would nominate Stan for his portrayal of a younger Trump in his younger days before he became the most divisive of political figures. Stan becomes the eighth actor to be nominated for portraying a US president, but he is highly unlikely to be the first. Without that Best Picture nomination, Domingo is also unlikely to win. However given this is his second nomination in as many years, I fully expect he will get his moment in the spotlight sooner rather than later.

Ralph Fiennes has been consistently brilliant across a glittering career having garnered three Oscar nominations, yet somehow hasn’t won, so there is an overdue narrative on his side. Had he won at the BAFTAs, it could have made this race very interesting and despite BAFTA showering Conclave with numerous awards, he was not among them. Chalamet became the third youngest nominee for Best Actor when he received his first nomination in 2018 and became the youngest two-time Best Actor nominee, a record previously held by James Dean. Much like Domingo, it is surely a case if when not if Chalamet collects an Oscar. If he did win, he would become the youngest Best Actor winner of all time and would break a record held by a certain Adrien Brody, who won his first Oscar for The Pianist back in 2003. If Brody did emerge triumphant, he would become the first actor to win in this category with his first two nominations.

Chalamet’s win at SAG could throw a spanner into the works, yet I am backing Brody to make history for his towering portrayal of a Hungarian-Jewish immigrant looking to fulfil the American Dream after emigrating from post-WW2 Europe. A fitting victory given the hostile and foul rhetoric being spewed towards immigrants by the current US administration.

Will Win: Adrien Brody

Should Win: Ralph Fiennes

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

  • Anora  – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker
  • The Brutalist – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim, and Brady Corbet
  • A Complete Unknown  – Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman
  • Conclave  – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman
  • Dune: Part Two – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve
  • Emilia Pérez  – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard
  • I’m Still Here  –Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira
  • Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes
  • The Substance  – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, and Eric Fellner
  • Wicked  – Marc Platt

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

Last but not least, the big prize. In the past two years, this race has been a pretty foregone conclusion with Everything Everywhere All At Once and Oppenheimer both collecting seven awards before sweeping their way to winning Best Picture at the 95th and 96th Oscars respectively. This year however, there is no clear and obvious frontrunner, and is the most wide-open race we have had in quite some time. If I had my way, Dune: Part Two would be powering its way to victory like a Sandworm traversing the desert plains of Arrakis, but that is very unlikely to happen.

Up until a few weeks ago, since it secured the most nominations, Emilia Pérez might have taken this, but the controversy over its leading actress has brought any momentum it might have had. Conclave‘s success at the BAFTAs means it could be a potential spoiler to rain on Anora’s parade. Academy voters determine the winner using a preferential ballot and so in such a race where there is no frontrunner, with Conclave being generally well-liked across the board, it may pull off a surprise of biblical proportions. The only film I would have been majorly dissatisfied to see win would be Emilia Pérez, but with that film’s chances of winning all but over, I will be delighted for whoever does take home the big prize of the night.

Will Win: Anora 

Should Win: Dune: Part Two 

Should have been nominated: Sing Sing 

————————————————–

Final counts

Will win:

  • The Brutalist – 4 (Director, Leading Actor, Score,  and Cinematography)  
  • Anora – 2 (Picture and Original Screenplay)  
  • Conclave – 2 (Adapted Screenplay and Editing)
  • Dune: Part Two – 2 (Sound and Visual Effects)  
  • Emilia Perez – 2 (Supporting Actress and Original Song)  
  • The Substance – 2 (Best Actress and Makeup and Hairstyling)   
  • Wicked – 2 (Best Costumes and Production Design)   
  • A Real Pain – 1 (Supporting Actor)    
  • I’m Still Here – 1 (International Feature)  
  • The Wild Robot – 1 (Animated Feature)  

Should win:

  • Conclave – 4 (Leading Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing)  
  • Dune: Part Two – 3 (Picture, Visual Effects and Sound)   
  • The Substance – 3 (Best Actress, Original Screenplay and Makeup and Hairstyling)   
  • The Brutalist – 2 (Supporting Actor and Director)  
  • The Wild Robot – 2 (Animated Feature and Score)  
  • Wicked – 2 (Best Costumes and Production Design) 
  • I’m Still Here – 1 (International Feature) 
  • Nosferatu – 1 (Cinematography)  
  • Sing Sing – 1 (Orignal Song)
Posted in 2020-2029, Awards Season, Oscars, Ranking

97th Academy Awards: Best Picture Nominees ranked

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

As the curtain comes down on another awards season, it is time for Hollywood to mark its biggest night. The damage caused by the LA wildfires in January has brought things into perspective and although it promises to be a night filled with usual celebrations, glamour and parties, there is undoubtedly a sombre backdrop to this year’s awards. My heart goes out to all those affected by these terrible tragedies.

Nevertheless, ten more films are looking to bag the top prize and walk away with the coveted prize of Best Picture and join an illustrious company of films which includes Parasite, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and The Silence of the Lambs. In a year which gave us the first half of an adaptation of a beloved musical, a tense thriller set in the Vatican, a gnarly body horror, a musical biopic of one of the most influential artists of all time, a hilarious take on a not-so-Disney fairytale, and a 215-minute long historical epic. Not as strong as last year’s crop, but some excellent films nonetheless, and one that really doesn’t belong in this company.

Without further ado, here is my ranking of these films from worst to best, starting with…

10. Emilia Pérez

I always say that for every awards season, there is always going to be one film that I, for whatever reason, just do not vibe with or cannot understand why it has been nominated. This year, the film that stands out by quite a long way is Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez. I give this film all the points in the world for its originality and for the big audacious swings it takes. Anyone who says there is no originality left in cinema these days needs to look no further than this, a musical about a Mexican drug lord who undergoes gender reassignment surgery. You can’t get more original than that, however, originality does not make a good film.

The performances of its central three characters played by Zoe Saldana, Karla Sofía Gascón and Selena Gomez are all strong and it hits on some important themes. However, a key requirement for any musical is to have memorable musical numbers that will leave you singing them for days and weeks afterwards, and the musical numbers here just didn’t have that. Furthermore, given the film has attracted strong criticism from Mexico and the transgender community combined with the controversy of resurfaced tweets from Gascon cannot and should not be ignored. All these factors should severely damage its chances of winning any awards. The fact it is the most nominated film this year is truly head-scratching.

 

9. A Complete Unknown

 

Bob Dylan, a name instantly recognisable to countless people worldwide, is considered one of the greatest artists of all time. 40 studio albums and 21 live albums across a more than 60-year career is an extraordinary legacy, and it is no surprise that many filmmakers such as Todd Haynes and Martin Scorsese have made films centred on such a remarkable musician. Having directed 2005’s Walk The Line, a music biopic about Johnny Cash, James Mangold stage dives back into this world for another film about the man who has sold 125 million albums worldwide.

James Mangold could have easily taken the standard biopic approach and chronicled Bob Dylan’s life from his early years to the present. However, he focuses specifically on the early days of Dylan’s career in the 1960s, highlighting his encounters with his idol, Woody Guthrie, and his whirlwind romances with Elle Fanning’s Sylvie Russo, and Monica Barbaro’s Joan Baez. Throughout this period, Dylan grapples with the desire for artistic freedom while rising to mega-stardom. Timothée Chalamet delivers a strong, transformative performance as Dylan and Mangold’s direction hits the right notes. However, I just wasn’t invested in the story as much as I wanted to, and I feel this film is primarily aimed at passionate fans of Dylan, which is not me. That being said, ‘The Times They Are A-Changin'” is one hell of a banger.

 

 

8. I’m Still Here

In every awards show of the 2020s so far, at least one international film has competed for the top prize. Walter Salles’s film, representing Brazil, tells the harrowing true story of a woman’s struggle to uncover the truth about her husband’s disappearance during the 1970s, a time when the country was under military dictatorship. The film portrays a warm and sincere family dynamic set against the backdrop of sunny Rio de Janeiro, despite the ominous sounds of military aircraft flying overhead. It also highlights a historical period that many viewers may not be aware of, making it depressingly relevant given the alarming rise in dictators or aspiring dictators around the world today.

While the film could have conveyed more urgency, considering the family’s desperate situation, Fernanda Torres’s excellent and restrained performance in the face of authoritarian brutality makes it a worthwhile watch. Torres thoroughly deserves her nomination for Best Actress.

 

7. Nickel Boys

Throughout the years, many filmmakers have portrayed the harsh realities of racism in the United States, an insidious presence that unfortunately persists not only in the U.S. but around the world. However, these films have rarely explored this theme from a first-person perspective. This is what makes RaMell Ross’s film so visually striking, entirely unique, and profoundly unsettling to watch. Based on the 2019 novel by Colson Whitehead, the film centres on the friendship of two boys who are sent to an abusive reform school in Florida, where they must endure and survive the brutality they encounter.

The decision to tell this story from the first-person perspective is bold, powerful and innovative and captures the cruelty of this “school” unequivocally. However, it does get to a point where as ground-breaking as telling such a story from the perspective of these two the way the film is directed can work against it. Nevertheless,  it remains an important and necessary watch given the pervasive ugliness of racism that remains pervasive in the US right to the present day.

 

6. The Brutalist

review

In today’s world of smartphones and social media, any film which exceeds three hours is bound to spark debate over whether such a lengthy runtime is justified. Even for the most ardent cinephile, a runtime of 3 hours and 35 minutes can feel like an endurance test. However, with the help of an intermission built into that runtime, Brady Corbet’s ambitious and pertinent drama of a Hungarian-Jewish architect striving to achieve the American Dream, filmed in glorious VistaVision, feels like a film that could have been made and released several decades ago. Unfortunately, the cacophonous bile spewed by supposed world leaders demonising immigrants and their legal bid to emigrate to a brand new country to make a new life for themselves, makes it all the more relevant in today’s political climate.

Its themes of striving to create something to leave a lasting legacy in your respective field, only to have numerous obstacles thrown in your way, are also very timely and topical. Despite that lengthy runtime, the clever use of a built-in intermission ensures the film seldom drags and I could have happily watched more, particularly as I felt the third act came to a sharp and abrupt halt which really took me out of the film and prevents it from becoming a true modern masterpiece.

 

5. The Substance

The sole film among this year’s nominees to be directed by a woman, and the first horror film to receive a best picture nomination since Get Out was nominated at the 90th Academy Awards in 2018. The Academy has not often embraced horror, particularly such gnarly body horror on display here. There has been an array of fantastic performances in horror films not getting the recognition they deserved (Toni Collette, Florence Pugh and Lupita Nyong’o in Hereditary, Midsommar and Us respectively to name but a few).

To see Demi Moore succeed where those aforementioned performances didn’t get the nomination they deserved is immensely satisfying. Coralie Fargeat’s fierce script is filled with biting social commentary about the ridiculous pressure society places on women, the absurd beauty standards women have to put up with compared to men and the pressures to maintain those standards in the face of getting old. Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley both give tour-de-force performances, with an absolutely insane third act that you will not be forgetting in a hurry.

4. Anora

review

I was quite nervous about watching the follow-up film directed by Sean Baker, even knowing that it had won the coveted Palme d’Or at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. This anxiety stemmed from my experience with his previous film, Red Rocket, which I found to be thoroughly repulsive and predatory. Thankfully, my worries about his latest film were quickly put to rest. Despite my many gripes with Red Rocket, Baker’s films give a voice to the marginalized in American society, and this theme is prominent in his hilarious and chaotic take on the classic Cinderella fairytale. The film follows a young New York sex worker who believes she has found her Prince Charming, only to discover that this particular prince has some rather unwelcoming parents and henchmen.

The entire film rests on her shoulders, and after delivering memorable supporting performances in recent years, Mikey Madison finally gets her well-deserved moment in the spotlight as the princess of this unconventional love story. Just don’t expect any ballgowns or happy-ever-afters.

 

3. Wicked

The first film of this year’s crop which was an undisputed box office juggernaut in 2024. It would be fair to say that given how popular (pun most definitely intended) the musical which inspired this film is, expectations were sky high as to whether the musical would translate to the big screen, which hasn’t always been an easy path. Fortunately, in the very capable hands of Jon M. Chu, the first part of this journey back to the land of Oz to explore the friendship of Shiz University students Galinda and Elphaba before their paths diverge into becoming the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good hit all the right notes. With those irresistibly catchy songs, and the incredible performances of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, the film defied expectations (and gravity), and we’re only halfway through the story. Wicked: For Good cannot get here soon enough.

2. Conclave

review

On paper, a film about a group of religious men in fancy robes going through a lengthy process of choosing their next leader doesn’t sound like it would be ripe material for a tense thriller. Yet in the same vein as The Brutalist, in a year when countless people went to the polls across the world, the release couldn’t have been more apt in a tense political climate. We have seen all too often in recent years, political figures who shouldn’t be anywhere near the seats of world government, scramble to obtain and retain power by any means necessary.

This kind of vain and power-hungry behaviour is unexpected from those who have dedicated their lives to serving an institution like the Catholic Church. However, Peter Straughan’s gripping script keeps the audience engaged as agendas clash, long-hidden secrets emerge, and these men participate in a nearly Game of Thrones-style struggle for the right to become the next Pope. Meanwhile, others grapple with crises of faith, questioning the very institutions they have devoted themselves to. A pulsating papal drama, with magnificent work from its ensemble cast, led by the ever-reliable Ralph Fiennes.

1. Dune: Part Two

review

The second film in this year’s crop that was an absolute behemoth at the box office, with the spice flowing in plentiful supply, as it continued the journey of Paul Atriedes on the vast and inhospitable world of Arrakis in his quest for revenge against the Harkonnens. Denis Villeneuve picked up where he left off to deliver a sequel that built on the foundations of its predecessor to give audiences a much bigger, darker and yes better film than its predecessor. The first instalment garnered ten nominations -and won six – at the 94th Oscars in 2022.

The fact that the second half of this masterful adaptation of Frank Herbert’s book only garnered six nominations is a gargantuan sandworm-sized injustice. I can only hope that the Academy is waiting for Dune: Messiah to give this visionary director his well-deserved dues. It is only a matter of time before Villeneuve gets an Oscar given his incredible contributions to cinema since he gained wider recognition in Hollywood in 2013.

 

Could/should have been nominated…

So, there we have it, there is my ranking of the ten films competing for Best Picture. However, with this, I always like to imagine what could have been. It is safe to say that even with some great films in this year’s crop of nominees, one film really stands out like a sore thumb as being unworthy of its place as a Best Picture contender, while with another I can see why it has received a Best Picture nominee, it wouldn’t have been my choice.

So with that in mind, if I had a ballot, out would go Emilia Perez and A Complete Unknown, and in their place, I would choose to nominate two from the following three films:

Sing Sing – It really surprises me, for a film which is all about the arts and the restorative power they can have to transform our lives and offer any of us an outlet to express ourselves, Greg Kweda’s life-affirming and powerful prison drama, would be a sure bet to receive a nomination for Best Picture, particularly given this wasn’t the strongest year for cinema. Colman Domingo continues his remarkable trajectory with a phenomenal leading performance which should be putting him in the running for Best Actor. His time will come soon, I am absolutely sure of that.

We Live in Time – Okay, cards on the table, I am a huge fan of Florence Pugh. Therefore, any film she stars in automatically captures my attention. Adding Andrew Garfield into the equation, in a heartachingly beautiful and devastating film about two people who meet and fall in love while battling a heartbreaking medical diagnosis. It all seems like the perfect combination to merit awards attention, particularly given the devastating performances of Pugh and Garfield. Yet throughout this awards season, this film has been completely overlooked and I am genuinely flummoxed as to why.

Challengers – Like We Live in Time, Luca Guadagnino’s steamy tennis drama is another film to have completely overlooked in this awards season, and while it admittedly was a bit of a long shot particularly given how early in the year it was released, I firmly believe it was good enough to have received awards attention for the incredible performances of Zendaya, Josh O’Connor and Mike Faist, its sharp screenplay, and the absolute serve that is the tubthumping score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

 

Posted in 2020-2029, Awards Season, Oscars

96th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

The envelopes are sealed, the bow ties are being tied and the dresses in all of their glory are ready to dazzle on the red carpet as Hollywood is preparing to celebrate its biggest night with the 96th Academy Awards. 2023 was not without its challenges for the film industry, but it was an incredible year for cinema, with a plethora of terrific films. With 23 of those prestigious trophies to be won, let me gaze into my metaphorical crystal ball to see who will take etch their name into history and be crowned with an Oscar.

Just a quick note, that my predictions won’t include the documentaries and the shorts as I have not seen them, though I will endeavour to make an effort to watch those and include them in my predictions next year.

 

Best Animated Feature Film

  • The Boy and the Heron  – Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
  • Elemental   – Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
  • Nimona  – Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
  • Robot Dreams  – Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse  – Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Amy Pascal

Kicking us off, Best Animated is always a competitive category, but arguably this year more than most as there was a vast array of high-quality animated films, with the House of Mouse celebrating its 100th anniversary. The studio is represented here with another gem from Pixar in Elemental. Still, its hopes of winning here are slim to none, because this race is a battle of the astonishing animated wizardry of Across the Spider-Verse against what is believed to be the final bow from the legendary Hayao Miyazaki.  Both films are immaculately animated with ambitious stories in scope touching on very different but important themes, but while Boy and the Heron‘s story does get a bit convoluted, Spider-Verse does not. I hope I am wrong, but my spider-sense is telling me that the Academy might just favour giving this award to someone who has brought so much to this art form, but it could go either way.

Will Win: The Boy and The Heron 

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Could have been nominated: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Best Supporting Actress

  • Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
  • Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple 
  • America Ferrera – Barbie 
  • Jodie Foster  – Nyad
  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers 

The first of the supporting actor categories, and unlike last year where there was no frontrunner, this is anything but. It is fantastic to see Danielle Brooks be recognised for  The Colour Purple, the fact she is the film’s sole representative across this entire awards season is extremely bewildering and speaks to the sheer scale of competition this year, where a great film only gets one nomination (more on that in a bit). With a lack of a Best Picture nom, the chances for her and Nyad’s Jodie Foster are slim to none.  It looked as though she might miss out, but America Ferrara’s nomination was thoroughly deserved for THAT monologue scene alone. Blunt, somehow is scoring the first nomination of her career and despite a somewhat frustrating role where she is reduced to a drunken housewife, she certainly left an impression with that fiery moment in the hearing scene at the end of the film. Yet, given that she has picked up just about every award going in this awards season, nothing is going to stop Da’Vine Joy Randolph from deservedly completing the set and bagging the Oscar for her wonderful performance in The Holdovers.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Could have been nominated: Claire Foy for All of Us Strangers or Sandra Huller for The Zone of Interest

 

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction 
  • Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon 
  • Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer 
  • Ryan Gosling – Barbie 
  • Mark Ruffalo  – Poor Things 

For the past four years, two actors from the same film have cropped up in this category, and there was a chance it could have been a fifth year in a row had Willem Dafoe also been nominated for Poor Things. Sterling K. Brown is the only actor of this crop picking up his first nomination, for his memorable turn as the brother to Jeffrey Wright’s frustrated author in American Fiction. Mark Ruffalo’s hilarious turn as a slimy lawyer in Poor Things was another reminder of his incredible talent which he doesn’t get to explore in the MCU. Robert DeNiro”s turn as the reptilian William “King” Hale has brought the ninth nomination of his career, and in another year, it might have resulted in another win for the industry legend. Ryan Gosling certainly brought all the Kenergy he could to what was a scene-stealing performance, but not even the Kenergy Gosling brought to his performance will be able to stop Robert Downey Jr from claiming his first Oscar.

Like with Supporting Actress, this is not a contest, as Downey Jr has swept all before him with his incredible performance as Lewis Strauss. It is quite fitting that 15 years since the late Heath Ledger’s iconic performance in one Christopher Nolan masterpiece denied Downey an Oscar, another Nolan masterpiece will give him his first Oscar.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Could have been nominated: Willem Dafoe for Poor Things or Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers 

Best Cinematography

  • El Conde  – Edward Lachman 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon  – Rodrigo Prieto 
  • Maestro  – Matthew Libatique 
  • Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoyetma 
  • Poor Things – Robbie Ryan 

There’s only one name on this Oscar, and that is Hoyte van Hoytema’s.

Will Win: Hoyte van Hoyetma 

Should Win: Hoyte van Hoyetma 

Could have been nominated: Łukasz Żal for The Zone of Interest

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

 

  • Golda – Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
  • Maestro – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
  • Oppenheimer  – Luisa Abel 
  • Poor Things  – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
  • Society of the Snow – Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé

Usually, success in this category correlates with the transformative make-up work done to a particular actor in one of the acting races, but given the way I suspect the acting races will go, that logic does not apply here. Therefore, given the significant amount of chatter with which one particular nose generated (a big fuss over nothing really), and with Kazu Hiro having picked up two wins in this category for Darkest Hour and Bombshell, I am backing him to make it a hat-trick here, though Poor Things and Oppenheimer could be potential dark horses.

Will Win:  Maestro 

Should Win: Maestro

Should have been nominated: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Best Costume Design

  • Barbie  – Jacqueline Durran 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon  – Jacqueline West
  • Napoleon  – Janty Yates and David Crossman 
  • Oppenheimer   – Ellen Mirojnick 
  • Poor Things  – Holly Waddington 

This is the first of many battles that is likely to be a very close contest between Barbie and Poor Things, with round one going to Poor Things (or as my very good friend Jay McGrath so brilliantly called it, Arthouse Barbie!)

Will Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Poor Things 

Should have been nominated: Francine Jamison-Tanchuck for The Color Purple 

Best International Feature Film

 

  • Io capitano   (Italy)  – directed by Matteo Garrone
  • Perfect Days (Japan)  – directed by Wim Wenders  
  • Society of the Snow  (Spain)  – directed by J.A. Bayona 
  • The Teachers’ Lounge  (Germany)  – directed by İlker Çatak
  • The Zone of Interest  (United Kingdom)  – directed by Jonathan Glazer 

Had France submitted Anatomy of a Fall for its submission in this category, this could have been a very intriguing race between two Best Picture nominees. However, as the sole Best Picture nominee here, The Zone of Interest will make history by becoming the United Kingdom’s first winner in this category at the third time of asking.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest 

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Best Production Design

  • Barbie  – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
  • Napoleon – Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff 
  • Oppenheimer – Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman 
  • Poor Things – Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek

Barbie VS Arthouse Barbie Round 2. Given the fact that the Barbie production design team used so much pink paint to design the world of Barbie Land, they caused a worldwide shortage, I feel like this should tip the scale in Barbie’s favour, particularly since Barbie duo Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer are on their seventh nomination and their incredible work to bring Barbie Land to life should merit them their first win. However, with wins from the Art Director’s Guild of America and BAFTA, the momentum is with Poor Things.

Will Win: Poor Things 

Should Win: Barbie

Best Original Score

  • American Fiction – Laura Karpman 
  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny  – John Williams 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson 
  • Oppenheimer  – Ludwig Göransson
  • Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix 

I don’t think you will find anyone on planet Earth who would dispute John Williams’s status as one of the greatest composers in film history. His legend status is assured, but his nomination for the latest Indiana Jones is endlessly frustrating and borderline lazy. Was anything he composed for the film (the theme tune does not count) memorable? The Academy could have shown ambition by giving animated films nominations elsewhere and showed Daniel Pemberton some love for his brilliant Across the Spider-Verse score, or likewise for Joe Hisaishi for The Boy and the Heron. A posthumous win for Robbie Robertson would be a nice moment, but I hope Ludwig Göransson can hear the music when they announce his name because he will be claiming his second Oscar after his win for Black Panther.

Will Win: Ludwig Göransson

Should Win: Ludwig Göransson

Should have been nominated: Daniel Pemberton for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Sound

  • The Creator  – Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
  • Maestro  – Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning  – Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
  • Oppenheimer  – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
  • The Zone of Interest – Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

From the minute Oppenheimer debuted and the enthralling Trinity Test sequences reverberated from cinema speakers across the world quite literally blasting people back into their seats, especially in IMAX, this race felt like an open and shut case and the names of those sound artists were already on the trophy. Yet, given the crucial role of sound utilised in The Zone of Interest to depict the horrors of the Auschwitz concentration camp, and its win over Oppenheimer at BAFTA, it has emerged as a potential upset on the former’s march towards an impressive sweep. It might well have surged too late, and given sound and editing usually go hand in hand, I don’t foresee another upset here.

Will Win: Oppenheimer 

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song

  • “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
  • “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie  – Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
  • “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony – Music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
  • “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon – Music and lyrics by Scott George
  • “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie   –  Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

.Another year, another nomination for Dianne Warren, which brings her total number of nominations to 15. Yet, her wait for that Oscar is almost certainly going to continue as this year’s contest boils down to a battle of the Barbies VS Kens, as it’s a straight fight between the hilarious “I’m Just Ken” so tremendously well performed by Ryan Gosling and the more heartfelt “What Was I Made For” during the film’s emotional conclusion. The brother and sister duo of Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell were just 20 and 24 years old when they scooped their first Oscar in 2022 for the theme song from No Time to Die, and were they to win again, Eilish would become the youngest two-time winner in Oscars history, and it would be fully deserved. Though, the lack of nomination for “Live That Way Forever” from The Iron Claw (indeed, the lack of nominations for the film in general) really boggles the mind.

Will Win: “What Was I Made For” from Barbie 

Should Win: “What Was I Made For” from Barbie 

Should have been nominated: “Live That Way Forever” from The Iron Claw  

Best Film Editing

  • Anatomy of a Fall – Laurent Sénéchal
  • The Holdovers  – Kevin Tent 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – Thelma Schoonmaker 
  • Opppenheimer  – Jennifer Lame 
  • Poor Things  – Yorgos  Mavropsaridis

To make three hours and three and a half hours fly by as quickly as they did is a testament to the immense editing work of both Jennifer Lame and Thelma Schoonmaker for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon respectively. If Schoonmaker were to win, she would become the first person in this category to win four Oscars. However, as previously mentioned, sound and editing often go hand in hand, so you can add this to Oppenheimer‘s collection of awards.

Will Win: Oppenheimer 

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects

 

  • The Creator – Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould
  • Godzilla Minus One – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek 
  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Alex Wutke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould
  • Napoleon  – Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould

Given that none of these films are Best Picture contenders, there is no immediate frontrunner here. Oppenheimer on the face of it seemed like a sure bet to win, but somewhat surprisingly it did not even make the shortlist, perhaps given Nolan’s desire to use practical effects whenever possible counted against him. Also, BAFTA winner Poor Things is absent, opening the door for another film to grab Oscar gold. For a film with a budget of just $80m, the work on The Creator is phenomenal, likewise for Godzilla Minus One and its even smaller budget of $10-12m nabbed the King of the Monsters’ first nomination. It amazes me that despite many nominations, an MCU film has never won this award. Guardians would be a worthy winner to break that streak. But in a battle of futuristic sci-fi vs a big Kaiju, the futuristic sci-fi has it.

Will Win: The Creator 

Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

 

Best Original Screenplay

  • Anatomy of a Fall   – Written by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari 
  • The Holdovers  – Written by David Hemingson 
  • Maestro   – Written by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer 
  • May December   – Written by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Buch and Alex Mechanik 
  • Past Lives   – Written by Celine Song 

This might have been a very different race had there not been some category switcheroo taking place (more on that in a bit).

With its lack of Best Picture nomination, May December can immediately be discounted, leaving the four Best Picture contenders. Maestro seems to have taken on the mantra of everyone’s favourite punching bag of this year, a tad harsh for my money as the passion which went into the screenplay is there to see on screen, but this won’t end Bradley Cooper’s long wait for an Oscar. The buzz for Past Lives was massive when it premiered at Sundance last year but its momentum seems to have stalled at the worst possible time, while The Holdovers’ witticisms, its brilliant use of comedic insults, and the warm fuzziness it generates could help it to snag a win. Yet, that seems unlikely Anatomy of a Fall triumphed at the Golden Globes and BAFTA and is odds on to complete the hat trick with the Oscar, which is perhaps the best place to honour the Palme D’Or winner at Cannes, given it was not chosen by France as its submission for Best International Feature.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should Win: Past Lives

Should have been nominated: The Iron Claw 

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • American Fiction  – Written by Cord Jefferson 
  • Barbie  – Written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach 
  • Oppenheimer   – Written by Christopher Nolan 
  • Poor Things  – Written by Cord Tony McNamara
  • The Zone of Interest  – Written by Jonathan Glazer

And here’s where that category switcheroo comes into play which has made this race considerably spicier.

Across this awards season, Barbie has competed in Original, which does make sense as despite being based on Barbie characters, it does tell a wholly original story. Yet the Academy decreed it belonged in the adapted screenplay, so here we are. A very strong field of Best Picture contenders, Jonathan Glazer loosely adapted the novel of the same by Martin Amis into a timely and horrifying analysis of human complicity in the face of unspeakable evil. Tony McNamara’s adaptation of Alasdair Gray’s novel combines the film’s horror-ish elements with some of the blackest humour and the results were hilarious. Given he wrote parts of the script in the first person, a win for Nolan here is not out of the question and could add to Oppenheimer‘s likely sweep, which brings me to Barbie, the second half of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Gerwig missed out on the Best Director nom, and given the impact this phenomenon had in getting people out to the cinemas, dressing up, and just the vibe it created, Gerwig and Baumbach deserve some recognition.

Part of me wants to say this will go Barbie’s way. However, what gives me pause is American Fiction has surged late on, particularly with it winning at BAFTA (the only category it was nominated in) is quite the feat, and perhaps given its sharp and satirical analysis of writing, it connected the most with the Writers branch of the Academy and looks on course to propel it, and Cord Jefferson to a win for his first foray into feature film writing and directing, which would be mightily impressive.

Will Win: American Fiction 

Should Win: Barbie

Should have been nominated: Andrew Haigh for All of Us Strangers or Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and David Callaham for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Director

  • Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
  • Martin Scorsese  – Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer 
  • Yorgos Lanthimos –Poor Things
  • Jonathan Glazer  – The Zone of Interest

The first of two categories that were guaranteed to cause chaos regardless of who was nominated. given the sheer quality of top-quality films competing this year, someone high profile was going to miss out, and that someone was Greta Gerwig. It is hard to argue who could Gerwig displace in what is a very strong field of nominees this year, but as I summarised in a tweet that went semi-viral, I just feel like given Barbie was the undisputed queen of the box office, becoming the first film by a solo female director to cross $1bn at the worldwide box office. It is historic and (in my opinion) should have merited her nomination.

Though, even if Gerwig had been nominated, her chances of winning are next to nought as this is Christopher Nolan’s time, he is well overdue a win given his phenomenal contribution to cinema throughout his career, and he deserves it for that phenomenal Trinity test scene alone. Academy Award winner Christopher Nolan, it has a very nice ring to it.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Could have been nominated: Greta Gerwig for Barbie

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Annette Benning – Nyad 
  • Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
  • Carey Mulligan – Maestro 
  • Emma Stone – Poor Things 

The second of the categories that was bound to cause complete chaos when the nominations were unveiled as someone big was going to miss out, with Margot Robbie and Greta Lee finding themselves really unfortunate to miss out despite excellent performances in Barbie and Past Lives. Carey Mulligan’s wait for Oscar glory should have ended in 2021 when she should have won for Promising Young Woman, but alas her wait for an Oscar will go on despite another excellent performance in Maestro. Likewise for Annette Benning,  despite her performance in Nyad representing her fifth career nomination. Sandra Huller had a phenomenal 2023 appearing in two Best Picture films, and she seems the most likely to be a potential upset because this year’s Best Actress race is essentially a Battle of the Stones.

On the one hand, you have Lily Gladstone who outshone industry legends like Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro with her understated and devastating performance as Mollie Burkhart in Martin Scorsese’s latest masterpiece. She conveys, through her eyes and body language, such raw and devastating emotion, as her character endures horrific tragedy as her family members are killed, sometimes in the most horrific and brutal of ways. Yet on the other hand, you have Emma Stone’s fearless and arguably career-best performance as Bella Baxter, as she takes charge of her own destiny and goes on a fascinating journey through the complicated and beautiful world. It is definitely the riskier of the two performances and in the wrong actor’s hands it could have been an absolute disaster, but Stone’s talent comes to the fore. Either would be a tremendously worthy winner.

Gladstone was inexcusably snubbed at BAFTA, which could count against her. However, she did win the Critics Choice award, and as was the case last year with Michelle Yeoh, Gladstone has a potentially history-making narrative on her side as she would become the first Indigenous American actress to win. In any given year, Emma Stone would have it in the bag, but with that history-making caveat, I think this tips it in Gladstone’s favour and Gladstone is probably her film’s only shot at winning something. Otherwise, two consecutive Martin Scorsese films will have received a slew of nominations, only to walk away with nothing which honestly doesn’t bear thinking about.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone 

Should Win: Lily Gladstone

Should have been nominated: Greta Lee for Past Lives or Margot Robbie for Barbie

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Bradley Cooper – Maestro
  • Colman Domingo – Rustin 
  • Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
  • Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer 
  • Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

As is the case with his Maestro co-star, Bradley Cooper is someone whose wait for Oscars gold should have ended in 2019, for his beautiful work as an actor/writer/director in his work on A Star is Born. He has now garnered 12 nominations in his career, and yet still no Oscar. As previously mentioned, his work on the Leonard Bernstein biopic has attracted some criticism and ridicule as nothing more than Oscar bait and a desperate attempt to win an Oscar, which is a bit harsh as the passion for the project is evident. Colman Domingo’s excellent performance shines a light on a very prominent activist whom more people should know about, while Wright arguably gives the performance of his career as a frustrated author who unexpectedly finds success with a cliched novel he writes out of spite.

However, this race has essentially boiled down to a race between arguably the most important man who ever lived and a curmudgeonly classics professor who is reluctantly tasked with looking after a group of kids at a boarding school who have nowhere to go for the Christmas holidays. Giamatti’s character does have some of the most brilliant quips and witticisms and he is a well-respected actor. However, Murphy has the momentum of winning at BAFTA and the Critics Choice and is the central performance in the Best Picture frontrunner. If Murphy was not as brilliant as he was, then the entire film would have fallen apart. Murphy has enjoyed a productive collaborative relationship with Nolan over the last two decades, and to see both of them crowned as Oscar winners on the same evening will be a special moment.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy

Should Win: Cillian Murphy 

Could have been nominated: Zac Efron for The Iron Claw

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

  • American Fiction  – Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, and Jermaine Johnson
  • Anatomy of a Fall  – Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion
  • Barbie  – David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, and Robbie Brenner
  • The Holdovers  – Mark Johnson 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese, and Daniel Lupi
  • Maestro  – Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning, and Kristie Macosko Krieger
  • Oppenheimer   – Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan  
  • Past Lives  – David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, and Pamela Koffler,
  • Poor Things  – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Emma Stone
  • The Zone of Interest  – James Wilson  

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

As I mentioned in my ranking of this year’s Best Picture nominees, I would argue this is the strongest lineup of nominees this category has seen for a good few years, perhaps since the 92nd Oscars in 2020 where Parasite made history. There is for my money, no film here that looks out of place and this year’s crop made history with three of the nominees being directed by women, long may that continue.

2023 will almost certainly be remembered as the year of the Barbenheimer phenomenon, which became a cultural event unlike anything we have seen for a while, and prompted people everywhere to return to the cinemas in droves. Barbie, unquestionably, ruled the box office, but Oppenheimer will to borrow a phrase, become the victor, the winner of Oscars. If my predictions are correct, Oppenehimer could become the most successful Oscar-winning film since 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, as it could take home as many as eight golden statues. Christopher Nolan is one of those directors whose name is instantly recognisable, with an impressive body of work that somehow hadn’t already won him an Oscar. This film is undoubtedly the crowning moment of his incredible career, fittingly hailed by many as his magnum opus, and will be the one to ensure he writes his name into the history books.

Will Win:  Oppenheimer 

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Should have been nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse or The Iron Claw 

————————————————–

Final counts

Will win:

  • Oppenheimer – 8 (Picture, Actor, Director, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Score, Sound and Cinematography)  
  • Poor Things – 2 (Costumes and Production Design)  
  • American Fiction – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)  
  • Anatomy of a Fall – 1 (Original Screenplay)  
  • Barbie – 1 (Original Song)  
  • The Boy and the Heron  – 1 (Animated Feature) 
  • The Creator – 1 (Visual Effects)  
  • The Holdovers – 1 (Supporting Actress)  
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – 1 (Actress)  
  • Maestro – 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)  
  • The Zone of Interest – 1 (International Feature)  

Should win:

  • Oppenheimer – 8 (Picture, Actor, Director, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Score, Sound and Cinematography) 
  • Barbie – 3 (Adapted Screenplay, Production Design and Original Song)  
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 – 1 (Visual Effects)  
  • The Holdovers – 1 (Supporting Actress)  
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – 1 (Actress)  
  • Maestro – 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)  
  • Past Lives – 1 (Original Screenplay)  
  • Poor Things – 1 (Costumes)  
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – 1 (Animated Feature)  
  • The Zone of Interest – 1 (International Feature)  
Posted in 2020-2029, Awards Season, Oscars, Ranking

96th Academy Awards: Best Picture Nominees ranked

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Another awards season is poised to come to a close, in a year filled with terrific movies and one of the best years for cinema in several years. It was also a tumultuous year as Hollywood was ground to a halt for several long months due to the writers’ and actors’ strikes. Though with both strikes now in the rearview mirror, it is time for Hollywood’s biggest night. Another ten films are competing for the top honour and these include a gripping courtroom drama, an extremely idiosyncratic black comedy, analyses of some dark and disturbing chapters in human history, a beautiful love story, a future festive classic, and a film centred on one of the most influential toys of all time.

One of the most impressive batch of Best Picture nominees we’ve had in a long time, perhaps since the 92nd Acadamy Awards in 2020, with no film sticking out like a sore thumb.

So, without further ado, I present my ranking of these films from worst to best. Starting with…

10. Maestro

Usually, I find that whenever awards season rolls around, there is always one film that I don’t understand the hype for. There were some films that this applied to, but in terms of the nominees, this is not applicable as all ten of these films, for my money, thoroughly deserve to be here. Therefore being at the bottom of a list of ten very strong films is not a slight on Bradley Cooper’s passion project exploring the life of legendary composer Leonard Bernstein and his complicated marriage to his wife Felicia Montealegre Bernstein (Mulligan). While Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg were attached to the project, it eventually landed in Cooper’s capable hands. Cooper’s passion for Bernstein’s work and who Bernstein was as a person shines through, with Cooper and Carey Mulligan both dynamic in their performances which thoroughly merited Oscar nominations.

The film is absolutely beautiful to look at, with the incredible cinematography from Matthew Libatique and incredible work and from the hair and make-up teams that are so transformative to the point where you don’t see the actor, you see the maestro himself. It suffers a little bit in terms of pacing, and while accusations of the film being nothing more than Oscar bait are unfair, Cooper has composed a film that is a fascinating character study of one of the most legendary composers of the 20th century.

 

9. American Fiction

 

If you’re a writer, no matter your field, it can be a funny old business. Even if you are extremely successful, you can find yourself struggling to put the words on the page for any number of reasons, be it writer’s block, fatigue/exhaustion or frustration with the industry. The latter is most applicable for Monk (Wright), an author/professor who after being put on a leave of absence, writes a novel that leans to tired cliches/stereotypes, only for it to become a massive, runaway success, much to his immense annoyance.  Biting sharp and hilarious satire about the media we consume and the marginalisation of voices of colour, with moving and impactful family drama, and an arguable career-best performance from Jeffrey Wright. An impressive first foray into the realm of feature filmmaking from Cord Jefferson, and one which could well merit an Oscar at the first time of asking.

 

8. Anatomy of a Fall

In a historic first for Best Picture nominees, three of this year’s nominees were directed by women. That fact alone deserves to be celebrated, and all three films thoroughly deserve their status as Best Picture Nominees. The first of these is Justine Triet’s Palme D’Or winner at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, which does what all great courtroom dramas should do, in that it keeps the audience on its toes as to whether novelist Sandra (Sandra Hüller) is innocent or guilty after she is accused of murder after her husband fell to his death at their remote home in the French Alps.

Throughout two and a half gripping hours, the audience – like a jury in a courtroom – watches and listens with eagle eyes and ears to the evidence and witness testimony being presented to determine if Sandra is guilty of the crime or whether she is innocent, all while showing the crucial backstory of the relationship with her husband which led to the breakdown of their relationship and the fall which led to his death.  In an extraordinary year for Huller, who also appeared in another Best Picture contender this year (more on that very shortly), she carries the film on her shoulders with a captivating performance that makes you sympathise with the plight in her family life but also really makes you question if she committed the crime she is being accused of. Tremendously compelling.

 

7. The Zone of Interest

review

Cinema is so often designed to entertain, but every once in a while, a film comes along designed to chill us to our core and serve as a lesson for humanity, and Jonathan Glazer’s latest film is one such example.  The horrors of the Holocaust are well-documented in our history textbooks and in previous films which have captured the brutalities inflicted upon millions of Jews during the Second World War by the Nazis in concentration camps. By depicting these horrors from the perspective of a Nazi commandant and his family as they go about their daily lives while living right next door to the Auschwitz concentration camp, it serves as a reminder of how humanity can be complicit in the face of unspeakable evil.

The horrors of the camp are kept of sight but never out of mind due to the unmistakable and horrifying sounds of gunshots, orders being yelled, cries for mercy, and the sight of the Auschwitz chimney splurging out smoke, are used to chill the audience to their very core. It is horrifying to hear these, all the while the family, and in particular the matriarch (another impressive performance from Sandra Huller) show complete indifference to the suffering taking place mere yards away. It is easy to see why the film has been hailed as one of the most important films of the century, with a final few minutes that unmistakeably connects the horrors witnessed in the Holocaust to the present day. Definitely not an easy watch, and probably not one that will lend itself to many rewatches. But, in this messy and very hostile world, we live in, a necessary one.

6. The Holdovers

review

If someone told me that Alexander Payne is a time traveller, I’d be very tempted to believe them based on this film, because it genuinely feels as though it was made in the 1970s and has been preserved all these years later. From those retro opening titles to the cinematography which immediately transports us to the 1970s and to Boston USA, where three unlikely souls are made to spend the festive period at their boarding school, the last place on Earth they probably would want to be.

The most joyous time of the year in a place not usually known for its joy is a recipe for both witty and sometimes sombre dialogue, which is exactly what David Hemingson’s script delivers as these unlikely souls spend time together, learning what it means to be a family during Christmas. The trio of central performances are all wonderfully well-drawn, with Giamatti’s cantankerous teacher going toe-to-toe with newcomer Dominic Sessa, and the brilliant and soon to be with soon to be Academy Award winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph bringing warmth and heart to the group as she navigates a period in her life no one should have to go through alone. A film that evokes a warm fuzzy feeling whenever Christmas rolls around and one that is destined to become a future festive classic.

 

5. Poor Things

review

There is no director currently in the business who is making films quite like Yorgos Lanthimos, and honestly, all the better for it. Hollywood has been dominated by superheroes, reboots and sequels in recent years. Therefore you can always rely on Lanthimos, whether he’s adapting from existing source material or an entirely original concept, to make something wholly unique and thoroughly entertaining.

For his latest, it’s the former as he reteams with his The Favourite writer Tony McNamara to adapt the 1992 novel of the same name by Alasdair Gray in which an eccentric scientist brings a dead woman back to life by replacing her brain with that of an infant. A premise on the base of it, sounds so bizarre and disturbing, in any other director’s hands it would probably be exactly that and not remotely entertaining. Yet, the Greek auteur delivers (like another film on this list) an unashamedly feminist tale of a woman on an emotional journey of self-discovery as she takes control of her destiny. Visually stunning, with some of the most outrageously humorous dialogue, and a career-best performance from Emma Stone. Lanthimos and Stone are clearly having a ball being each other’s muses, with another film set to come out later this year. Long may their collaborative partnership continue.

4. Barbie

review

Hi, Barbie! The undisputed queen of the box office in 2023,  one-half of a cinematic phenomenon unlike anything we have seen for quite a few years, and the second film on this list to be directed by a woman. Right from the moment the first trailer for Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic Mattel doll which changed the world forever dropped, you knew that audiences were in for something special that would not merely be a toy commercial. With one of the most impressively stacked casts of the entire year, the journey Gerwig took audiences on to Barbie Land, the real world and back again, probably went harder than anyone could have possibly imagined as it packs stark social commentary on gender roles, feminism, patriarchy and its treatment of women, and much more. Funny, full of heart, with no shortage of emotional and hard-hitting moments, and an endless amount of Kenergy. Life in Plastic is truly fantastic, especially for Greta Gerwig as every one of her movies has now been nominated for Best Picture. An incredible achievement for this filmmaker Barbie.

 

 

3. Past Lives 

review

Completing the trio of best picture nominees directed by women, and the second directorial debut on this list, is Celine Song’s heart-achingly beautiful romantic semi-autobiographical drama of the meeting of two former childhood sweethearts who meet in person after nearly two decades apart. At its heart, it’s a simple story of three people, who are in a very complex and emotional love triangle, meeting and ruminating on the choices they have made in their lives and what might have been had certain things transpired differently. Yet, in no small part due to the tremendous performances of Greta Lee, Teo Yoo, and John Magaro, and given it is based on Song’s own life experiences, it has a lot more to say about destiny, love, regrets and what might have been, relatable themes as we all navigate this complex, messy and sometimes beautiful world we live in.

2. Killers of the Flower Moon 

review

Like The Zone of Interest, the latest epic from Martin Scorsese is another film which takes a look at a dark and disturbing chapter in human history. Over three and a half hours, Scorsese takes an unflinching look at how the ugliness of corruption, greed and white supremacy in the 1920s USA, a time known as the Roaring Twenties due to the economic upturn in the country, resulted in the white community systematically murdering wealthy Osage members just to secure their wealth, in a period that became known as the Reign of Terror. It’s not an easy watch, but seeing Leonardo DiCaprio share a screen with Robert DeNiro,  the latter of whom is chillingly terrifying in his performance, and the phenomenal Lily Gladstone outshines them both with masterful editing by Scorsese’s long-time editor Thelma Schoonmaker, and one extremely powerful ending, this is one film you will not forget in a hurry, and proof that even at 81 years old, Scorsese is still at the very top of his game.

 

1. Oppenheimer 

review

What more is there to say about the latest masterpiece from Christopher Nolan? Since his debut feature back in 1998, he has become one of the most recognisable names in Hollywood. There has always been an interest in science and scientific discovery with his films, and this biopic of J. Robert Oppenheimer, a man who the director considers one of the most important people to have ever lived, represents the culmination of his career.

It is a testament to his immense skill as a screenwriter/director, that Nolan made a film which is a very science-heavy dialogue-driven film about a very complex subject and yet made it accessible to audiences, primarily due to the phenomenal importance of the weapon built by Oppenheimer at Los Alamos and the consequences of the uses of such a weapon, consequences which are still being felt on the world stage today. Barbeneheimer defined cinema in 2023, so it is extremely fitting that one-half of that phenomenon will walk away with the biggest prize on the night and could well become the most successful Best Picture winner in more than a decade, since Slumdog Millionaire walked away with eight Oscars, a haul Oppy stands a very strong chance of matching.

And now he has become victor, the winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture… 

 

Could/should have been nominated…

That concludes my ranking of the ten films up for Best Picture this year. However, I always like to hypothesise what could have been, but given the quality in this year’s crop, this is considerably harder than normal as I can’t really say that none of these films deserve their place competing for the top prize. But, if push comes to shove, if I had a ballot to cast, I would eliminate Maestro and replace it with one of the following three films:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – My favourite film of last year, the Academy’s tendency to not nominate animated films outside of the Best Animated category is starting to get particularly frustrating as with this year alone,  incredible film as well as displaying truly ground-breaking animation, could and perhaps should have got in for Best Picture, as well as Best Visual Effects, and certainly Best Score. Perhaps they are keeping those nominations for when Beyond the Spider-Verse swings its way into cinemas and blows our collective socks off.

The Iron Claw – The first of two films that absolutely broke me into a million pieces. I knew absolutely nothing about the Von Erich family going into this movie and by the end, I was uncontrollably sobbing in my seat. The mark of a great sports film is that even if you know nothing about the sport or the true story on which it is based, it still can have a profound impact, particularly if you have a brother. This was a stacked and fiercely competitive year for movies, absolutely. However,  how this didn’t, like a devastating wrestling move, leave Academy members floored and bestowing it with a tonne of nominations (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Directing, Original Song) to name but a few is something I cannot fathom.

All of Us Strangers – The second of two films released in this awards season that reduced me to an absolute sobbing mess. As with The Iron Claw, how Andrew Haigh’s beautiful and devastating emotional drama of one man who makes a fateful journey to his childhood home, didn’t even get a single nomination at the Oscars totally eludes me. Seeing this at the London Film Festival, I genuinely don’t think there was a dry eye in the house. The experience after the film as everyone collectively processed their emotions after they were put through the wringer, was cathartic, to say the least.

Posted in Awards Season, Film Feature, Oscars

95th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Another awards season is poised to come to a close, and so it is time to celebrate the best of the best that cinema had to offer with the 95th Academy Awards. All in all, 2022 was a solid year for cinema, especially given the struggles it has had to endure for these previous two years. After the mess of last year’s ceremony where some of the awards were inexcusably presented off the air, the Academy has thankfully not carried this nonsensical idea over to this year’s ceremony.

So, without further ado, with 23 of those prestigious trophies up for grabs, here are my predictions for who will be clutching one of those iconic golden statues at the end of the evening.

 

Best Supporting Actress

  • Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
  • Hong Chau – The Whale 
  • Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin 
  • Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
  • Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

We kick off with easily the most stacked acting category this year where there is a plethora of performances which could have been in the final five. But for now, let’s focus on those who were nominated. The nominations of both Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu mark the first time two Asian actresses have scored nominations in this category in the same year, and apart from Bassett, everyone else is picking up their first nomination. It looked for a while as though Hsu might miss out but it’s a relief she made it as her performance is a crucial part of her film’s narrative. Meanwhile, Jamie Lee Curtis’s performance in the same film feels like a culmination of everything she has brought to the industry across a five-decade-long career, which could explain her win at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. She probably wouldn’t have made the top five given the fierce competition, but it is nonetheless fantastic to see a legend like her be given her first nomination.

The two front runners are by far and away Kerry Condon and Angela Bassett, the latter of whom’s nomination marks the first time an acting performance in a Marvel Cinematic Universe film has received an Oscar nomination. Like Curtis, Bassett is a legend of the industry and yet somehow this is only her second nomination following 1993’s What’s Love Got to do With It. Despite Condon’s win at BAFTA, this trophy should have Bassett’s name on it, which when you watch her performance, especially the throne room speech in Wakanda Forever, where her grief and pain over the loss of Chadwick Boseman is painfully felt, there should be only one clear winner.

It says a lot about the insane competition this year when the likes of Janelle Monae (Glass Onion), Samantha Morton (She Said), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch and Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King) and Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), all of whom would have been worthy of a nomination, can’t even get a look in.

Will Win: Angela Bassett 

Should Win: Angela Bassett

Could have been nominated: See all of the above

 

Best Supporting Actor

  • Brendan Gleeson  – The Banshees of Inisherin 
  • Brian Tyree Henry  – Causeway 
  • Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans 
  • Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin 
  • Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

For the fourth year in a row, this category has two actors from the same film competing for the Best Supporting Actor trophy, with everyone apart from Judd Hirsch picking up their first nominations, which is wonderful to see.  It might have been a full set of first-timers had Paul Dano been nominated for The Fabelmans, as many had predicted. Sadly, for Dano, his wait for his first nomination goes on.

He might not have been on screen for very long, but Hirsch’s Uncle Boris certainly left an impression in The Fabelmans.  Brian Tyree Henry’s nomination came thoroughly out of the left field as he has been largely ignored throughout all of this awards season, but it is extremely satisfying to see him included as his performance in Causeway deserved recognition. The work of both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin is some of the best work of their respective careers, both working effortlessly alongside Colin Farrell to great effect, However, out of all the acting categories, this one feels the closest to a lock as, despite Keoghan’s triumph at the BAFTAs, there is no scenario, in this universe or in any multiverses, where Ke Huy Quan does not walk away with the Oscar for his brilliant work as Waymond, the goofy, multiverse-travelling husband to Michelle Yeoh’s Evelyn.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan

Could have been nominated: Paul Dano for The Fabelmans 

 

 

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Banshees of Inisherin  – Written by Martin McDonagh 
  • Everything Everywhere All At Once  – Written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert 
  • The Fabelmans  – Written by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner 
  • Tár – Written by Todd Field 
  • Triangle of Sadness – Written by Ruben Ostlund 

A battle of the Best Picture contenders, which makes picking an immediate frontrunner at first glance seems difficult. Yet, with both The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once having garnered the most nominations, it is likely this award will go to one of those two films. EEAAO is likely to dominate in some of the other big categories, including Best Director for The Daniels, so this could be the Academy’s chance to share the love, which is something they don’t always do. Three out of four of McDonagh’s films have been nominated for this award, so perhaps, given the Daniels seem to be odds on to win the Oscar for Best Director, this could be the moment to give McDonagh his dues.

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin 

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should have been nominated: Dana Stevens for The Woman King

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • All Quiet on the Western Front  – Screenplay by Edward Berger Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell 
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery   – Screenplay by Rian Johnson
  • Living – Screenplay by Kazuo Ishiguro 
  • Top Gun: Maverick – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie 
  • Women Talking – Screenplay by Sarah Polley 

All awards season long, this award really felt as though it only had Sarah Polley’s name on it for her excellent adaption of Miraim Tews’ novel. Although given the film was bafflingly snubbed by BAFTA, it could have completely lost its momentum, particularly as All Quiet on The Western Front conquered all before it at BAFTA. But, its presence in the Best Picture race shows there is a lot of support for the film, and a victory for Women Talking would see a woman win this category for three consecutive years, which would be wonderful to see.

Will Win: Women Talking 

Should Win: Women Talking 

Should have been nominated: Rebecca Lenkiewicz for She Said 

Best Animated Feature Film

  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Guillermo del Toro Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex 
  • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On  – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish  – Joel Crawford and Mark Swift 
  • The Sea Beast – Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
  • Turning Red – Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins 

Given it was released in March and inexcusably did not receive a cinema release, it is a relief to see Turning Red land a nomination, given it was easily the best-animated film Disney or Pixar released last year. However, with this being the only representative from the House of Mouse in this year’s crop of nominees, could Disney’s iron grip on this category be loosening?

Six of the 21 winners in this category have come from films produced either by Disney or its sister studio Pixar, but this year will make it the seventh non-Disney/Pixar winner. It will ultimately come down to the two films, with wishes at the heart of them. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is Dreamworks’ best film in years, and the cat has got my tongue and my vote. However, given the sheer labour of love in which Guillermo del Toro and his incredible team of artists brought one of the best interpretations of this classic tale to life, this is Pinocchio’s to lose.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Win: Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

Best International Feature Film

  • All Quiet on the Western Front  (Germany)  – directed by Edward Berger 
  • Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) – directed by Santiago Mitre 
  • Close (Belgium) – directed by Lukas Dhont
  • EO (Poland) – directed by Jerzy Skolimowski  
  • The Quiet Girl (Ireland) – directed by Colm Bairéad

There’s only one film here which is a Best Picture nominee, so it will be all quiet on the upset front.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front 

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front 

Should have been nominated: Decision to Leave (South Korea)

Best Original Score

  • All Quiet on the Western Front  – Nicholas Volker Bertelmann 
  • Babylon – Justin Hurwitz
  • The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once – Son Lux
  • The Fabelmans – John Williams

My head wants to say this award will be going to Justin Hurwitz for his insanely catchy score to Babylon. The film divided audiences, but no one can deny the irresistibly catchy nature of Hurwitz’s work, as whenever he collaborates with Damien Chazelle, the results are always spectacular. But, could Babylon’s divisive nature scupper a prospective win? With his staggering 53rd nomination at the age of 90, this makes the legendary John Williams the oldest nominee in Oscars history, and the second most nominated individual ever after a certain Walt Disney. The Fabelmans is probably unlikely to pick up any awards anywhere else, so this could be the time to bestow Williams with his sixth Oscar, but I’m going to say Babylon will prevail.

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz 

Should Win: Justin Hurwitz

Should have been nominated: Michael Giacchino for The Batman

Best Original Song

  • “Applause” from Tell it Like a Woman  – Music and lyrics by Dianne Warren
  • “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
  • “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler
  • “Naatu Naatu” from RRR – Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose
  • “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All At Once  –  Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

With every awards season that comes around, it is practically a given Dianne Warren will find herself nominated for Best Original Song, even if it is for a film few people have heard of. One of these days a nomination is going to turn into a win for her, but it will not be this year.

After her success in winning this award for A Star is Born, Lady Gaga could definitely claim her second trophy for her moving song from Top Gun: Maverick, while Rihanna’s long-awaited return to music brought us the deeply moving and powerful Lift Me Up, which feels borne out of the loss everyone felt when Chadwick Boseman passed away. However, RRR took the world by storm last year and given this is its sole nomination, it feels nailed on the Academy will recognise this accomplishment with an Oscar.

Will Win:  RRR

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound

  • All Quiet on the Western Front – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte
  • Avatar: The Way of Water – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges
  • The Batman – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson
  • Elvis – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller
  • Top Gun: Maverick – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor

So often, this category and editing go hand-in-hand, yet given the likely winner of Best Editing is nowhere to be found here, this award is a choice between the brutal sounds of trench warfare, the musical sounds of the King of Rock and Roll or the thunderous sounds of military aircraft, with the aircraft taking the trophy.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick 

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design

  • All Quiet on the Western Front – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
  • Avatar: The Way of Water – Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
  • Babylon – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
  • Elvis – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
  • The Fabelmans – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

The Academy usually loves films about Hollywood. While Babylon‘s divisiveness could scupper its chances of winning Original Score, it is unlikely to prevent it from taking this award given it has swept all before it this awards season.

Will Win: Babylon 

Should Win: Babylon 

Should have been nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

Best Cinematography

  • All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend
  • Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – Darius Khondji
  • Elvis – Mandy Walker
  • Empire of Light – Roger Deakins
  • Tár – Florian Hoffmeister

When you consider some of the breathtaking cinematography we saw in 2022, this year’s selection of nominees is decidedly uninspiring and there are some major major snubs which boggle the mind as to why they weren’t included. Roger Deakins’s status as a legend is assured, and it is a given he will be nominated almost every time he shoots a film, there were more deserving nominations this year. Elvis’ Mandy Walker becomes the third woman to be nominated for this award and while it would be historic to see her win, yet my money is on another win for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Though the snub for Claudio Miranda for Top Gun: Maverick feels particularly baffling when you consider when filming the aerial combat sequences, they were reliant on natural lighting to shoot them, not to mention the extraordinary camerawork. Plus, last year’s winner of this award Greig Fraser’s work in The Batman to capture the murky underworld of Gotham City was equally deserving of a nomination.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should have been nominated: Claudio Miranda for Top Gun: Maverick, Linus Sandgren for Babylon or Greig Fraser for The Batman 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Success in this category can often correlate with a win in one of the acting categories. This year, it could come down to whichever actor the Academy chooses to honour in Best Actor, which puts this as a coin flip between Elvis or The Whale. Given who I think will win Best Actor, my bet is going to give this one to The Whale.

  • All Quiet on the Western Front – Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
  • The Batman – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine 
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
  • Elvis  – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti
  • The Whale – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley

Will Win:  The Whale 

Should Win: The Whale

Best Costume Design

  • Babylon – Mary Zophres 
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth Carter 
  • Elvis – Catherine Martin 
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once – Shirley Kurata 
  • Mrs Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Bevan 

Ruth Carter’s win for the first Black Panther film at the 91st Academy Awards was a historic win, and if she were to repeat her triumph, she would become the first black woman to win two Oscars in any category, which is just utterly mind-boggling. However, Catherine Martin’s work in Elvis to recreate so many of the King’s iconic costumes is some incredible work which would be worthy of a victory to add to her victories in this category for Baz Luhrmann’s previous films The Great Gatsby and Moulin Rouge!

Will Win: Elvis 

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should have been nominated: Gersha Phillips for The Woman King and Jenny Eagan for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

Best Film Editing

  • The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
  • Elvis – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers
  • Tár – Monika Willi
  • Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton

It is usually the case that editing and sound categories correlate. Yet, could this be the year which breaks that trend? Top Gun: Maverick had the unenviable task of editing through several hundred hours of footage they shot for the aerial combat sequences, which would have put it in a good position to fly home with the win. But, the editing in Everything Everywhere All At Once is equally impressive. While one assumes they did not have to edit through several hundred hours of footage, due to the nature of its plot and its ambition, the film could have very easily become a jumbled mess had the editing not been as on point as it was. Either would be a worthy winner, but the power of the multiverse should help EEAAO prevail.

Will Win:  Everything Everywhere All At Once 

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

 

 

  • All Quiet on the Western Front – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar
  • Avatar: The Way of Water – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
  • The Batman – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick
  • Top Gun: Maverick – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher

The combination of the sheer visual majesty of Pandora and the pioneering technology developed for those breathtaking underwater scenes means there should only be one winner here.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Director

  • Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  • Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 
  • Todd Field – Tár
  • Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness 

For the last two years, we’ve seen women triumph in this category, which makes it all the more frustrating that women again find themselves shut out of this category, especially when you look at the quality of the films which were directed by women last year, there were certainly more than a few candidates who could have got in, such as Gina Prince-Bythewood, Sarah Polley, Maria Schrader or Chinoye Chukwu.

The Academy does have a tendency to nominate at least one international director, but had they nominated Edward Berger for All Quiet on The Western Front instead of Östlund, this might have been a very different race given the former’s success at BAFTA. Given his semi-autobiographical film may not triumph anywhere else, this could be the best chance to honour Steven Spielberg with his first Oscar since he won this very same award for Saving Private Ryan in 1999. However, with their triumph at the Directors Guild Awards, and the fact their film threw everything at the wall and somehow made it all work to wonderful effect, this is the Daniels’ to lose.

Will Win: The Daniels 

Should Win: The Daniels

Could have been nominated: Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King, Sarah Polley for Women Talking or Maria Schrader for She Said

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Austin Butler – Elvis 
  • Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Brendan Fraser  – The Whale
  • Paul Mescal  – Aftersun
  • Bill Nighy  – Living

For the first time since the 7th Academy Awards in 1935, all the nominees in this category are receiving their first nominations. This is heartwarming to see particularly for an actor like Bill Nighy whose nomination is deserving but also feels like a culmination of his decades-long career. However, both Nighy’s and Paul Mescal’s chances of a win seem unlikely as throughout this awards season, this race has been dominated by the remaining three gentlemen in this category.

Austin Butler’s performance as The King of Rock and Roll was so transformative, he disappeared into the role and the Academy has had a tendency for rewarding transformative performances of that nature. Farrell had a superb 2022 with his work in After Yang, Thirteen Lives, his villainous turn in The Batman, and to top it all off his excellent work in Banshees. However, his unexpected loss at the BAFTAs to Butler means his hopes of Oscar glory now look to be remote at best, which puts this award in a straight fight between Butler and Fraser. Like Ke Huy Quan, Fraser has a comeback narrative on his side, and while The Whale has divided audiences, no one can deny Fraser’s performance was truly impactful and the six-minute standing ovation at the Venice Film Festival is a testament to this. Plus with his win at the SAG awards and the over-arching sentiment that everyone seems to have towards him, it could tip this award in Fraser’s favour but this feels too close to call.

Will Win: Brendan Fraser 

Should Win: Brendan Fraser 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Cate Blanchett  – Tar
  • Ana de Armas  – Blonde 
  • Andrea Riseborough  – To Leslie 
  • Michelle Williams  – The Fabelmans 
  • Michelle Yeoh  – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

For the second year in a row, this is the acting category which is, by far and away, the most chaotic. Last year, all of the nominees starred in films which were not nominated for Best Picture, but this year the Academy chose chaos for a different reason.

Let’s start with the positives. It is fantastic to see Michelle Yeoh (somehow) bagging her first nomination for her truly incredible work in Everything Everywhere All At Once, a performance which encapsulates her extraordinary career. Her namesake Michelle Williams’s turn as a supportive mother to the on-screen representation of Steven Spielberg in The Fabelmans perfectly captured how the compassion and warmth of his mother encouraged him to want to pursue his passion for filmmaking. However, while she is great in the film, it does feel a bit of a mistake to have campaigned for her in lead, given the fierce competition from her namesake as well as Cate Blanchett’s excellent leading performance in Tar.

But, now onto the negatives, Ana De Armas is a phenomenal actress who I have admired ever since her performance in Blade Runner 2049. But, while her turn as Norma Jean/Marilyn Monroe is by far and away the best thing about Blonde, the film’s fictionalised treatment of Monroe left a very bad taste in my mouth. It was nearly three hours of relentless trauma and misery which had nothing meaningful to say and for that it should not have been bestowed with a nomination.

And lastly, Andrea Riseborough’s nomination for her work in To Leslie came as a massive surprise given she picked up none of the precursor nominations. Her campaign was by and large driven as a result of some of her peers campaigning on her behalf. This is so frustrating because it proves even when women of colour put in exemplary performances, such as Viola Davis in The Woman King or Danielle Deadwyler’s heart-breaking performance in Till, the odds are stacked against them. Just SIX black women have been nominated for this award since Halle Berry won in 2002, it is really not good enough. If people in the industry can mobilise to push for someone like Riseborough to get a nomination, it begs the question, where is this kind of energy for women of colour?  Both Davis and Deadwyler should have been nominated, with Deadwyler’s snub will go down as one of the most egregious and downright disgraceful snubs in recent memory.

But in terms of who is going to emerge victorious, it really is a coin flip between two industry veterans. Blanchett triumphed at BAFTA and Critic’s Choice, but with Yeoh’s victory at SAG, and EEAAO riding a wave of popularity which has put it in pole position to land the biggest prize of the night, it is fitting to honour the woman whose breathtaking performance is what made the film the wondrous experience it was. Yeoh deserves her dues and should become the first Asian woman, and only the second woman of colour to win this award. It is time.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh

Should have been nominated: Danielle Deadwyler for Till and Viola Davis for The Woman King or Carey Mulligan for She Said

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

  • All Quiet on the Western Front  – Malte Grunert 
  • Avatar: The Way of Water  – James Cameron and Jon Landau 
  • The Banshees of Inisherin   – Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, and Martin McDonagh
  • Elvis   – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss
  • Everything Everywhere All At Once   – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang
  • The Fabelmans  – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, and Tony Kushner
  • Tár  – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, and Scott Lambert
  • Top Gun: Maverick  – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, and Jerry Bruckheimer
  • Triangle of Sadness  – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober
  • Women Talking  – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand 

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

It is very satisfying to see in a year where he had 12 uninterrupted months of films on the big screen, this year’s crop of Best Picture nominees is pretty strong, with no film really sticking out like a sore thumb being included in this year’s list. Though it definitely could have been better, with Women Talking representing the only female-directed film on the list, despite the fact there were more than enough quality films directed by women which could have very easily made the list, such as She Said and The Woman King.

But alas, even if they had been nominated, their chances of a win probably wouldn’t have been high. Throughout this awards season, there has been one clear favourite which has by and large dominated and swept all before it and that film is the masterpiece from the Daniels. It says a lot about the sheer momentum and the positivity for Everything Everywhere that has carried it all the way to the awards season given it was released early last year and not in the usual Autumn/Winter awards season window and should it add the main prize to its likely slew of trophies, it would be the best Best Picture win since Parasite‘s triumph at the 92nd Oscars.

Will Win:  Everything Everywhere All At Once 

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once 

Should have been nominated: The Woman King and She Said 

————————————————–

Final counts

Will win:

  • Everything Everywhere All At Once – 5 (Picture, Actress, Director, Supporting Actor and Film Editing) 
  • All Quiet on the Western Front – 2 (International Feature and Cinematography) 
  • Babylon – 2 (Production Design and Score) 
  • The Whale – 2 (Actor and Makeup and Hairstyling)
  • Avatar: The Way of Water – 1 (Visual Effects) 
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever -1 (Supporting Actress) 
  • The Banshees of Inisherin – 1 (Original Screenplay) 
  • Elvis -1 (Costume Design) 
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – 1 (Animated Feature Film)
  • RRR – 1 (Original Song)
  • Top Gun: Maverick – 1 (Sound)
  • Women Talking – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

Should win:

  • Everything Everywhere All At Once – 6 (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, Director, Supporting Actor, and Costume Design)
  • All Quiet on the Western Front – 2 (International Feature and Cinematography)
  • Babylon – 2 (Production Design and Score) 
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – 2 (Supporting Actress and Original Song) 
  • Top Gun: Maverick – 2 (Sound and Film Editing)
  • The Whale – 2 (Actor and Makeup and Hairstyling)
  • Avatar: The Way of Water – 1 (Visual Effects) 
  • Puss In Boots: The Last Wish – 1 (Animated Feature Film)
  • Women Talking – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

 

Posted in 2020-2029, Awards Season, Oscars, Ranking

95th Academy Awards: Best Picture Nominees ranked

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Another awards season has come to a close and it is time to celebrate Hollywood’s biggest night with the 95th Academy Awards. After a full uninterrupted year of films on the big screen, ten films are competing for the top prize. They include a sharp social satire on the wealthy, a furious examination of the patriarchy, a biopic of one of the most iconic music artists of all time, a new interpretation of a classic anti-war novel, a couple of extremely successful sequels, and one of the most original films of the year.

An impressive crop of nominees, but as usual, only one film will emerge victorious. So, without any further ado, here’s my ranking of these films from worst to best. We start with…

10. Tár

I’ve always found every time awards season rolls around, there is always going to be one film that I struggle to connect with. This year, this film is Tár. For his first film in 16 years, director Todd Field brings the story of Lydia Tar, a fictional composer whose life begins to fall apart when a series of scandals come to light. There is a lot of depth to Fields’ screenplay, it is so rich and detailed, with a lot to say about cancel culture and the pedestal we often put celebrities on, you could almost be forgiven for thinking the film is based on a real-life figure, brought to the screen superbly by Cate Blanchett.

However, despite Blanchett’s incredible performance, the film sits at the bottom of this list because, while the film is impeccably crafted, I found it a bit of a slog to get through. Furthermore, the character of Lydia Tár was a difficult one to connect with and the film left me feeling quite cold as a result.

 

9. Elvis

Elvis Aaron Presley. The King of Rock and Roll and one of the most accomplished musicians to have ever lived. The popularity of musical biopics meant another film about the life of the singer was bound to happen sooner or later. In the hands of Baz Luhmann, a director whose previous films have certainly not been shy of extravagance and lavishness, he seemed like the ideal candidate to direct a film about the iconic singer.

Luhmann certainly goes all out for this depiction as he bids to capture Presley’s entire life, seen through the perspective of his controversial manager, Colonel Tom Parker (a severely miscast Tom Hanks). The film’s ambition cannot be denied, but even at 2 hours and 39 minutes, the attempt to capture Presley’s entire life feels too ambitious for its own good and drags the film down. However, what keeps it afloat is the extraordinary performance by Austin Butler whose dedication to bringing Elvis to the screen is so transformative, you could be forgiven for thinking it was the King himself on screen.

 

 

8. All Quiet on the Western Front

Throughout history, we have seen numerous examples of the horrors and brutality of war, and these horrors have often been captured in film in quite a brutal fashion. Indeed, those horrors have been brought into much sharper focus since the start of Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine last year, which makes this new take on the 1930 novel by Erich Maria Remarque feel all the more relevant in light of the brutality of the scenes we’ve all seen in Ukraine over the last 12 months.

The film recaptures the brutality of trench warfare and the unimaginable horror the soldiers on both sides would have gone through on a day-to-day basis, with millions sent to their deaths to make minimal gains. The film is technically flawless, boasting immaculate production design and cinematography. However, while it serves its purpose as an anti-war film, it suffered due to a lack of development of its lead characters who merely exist to hammer the film’s main point home about the brutal and unforgiving nature of war.

 

7. Triangle of Sadness

Ever since the COVID pandemic hit and the wealth gap between the 1% in our society and everyone else grew even bigger, satires of the super-rich have been in plentiful supply as of late, which has been joyful to watch and necessary. However, none have done so in quite a scathing, and simultaneously hilarious manner as this Palme D’Or winner from Ruben Östlund.

Focusing on a young couple who are invited onto a cruise ship for the super-rich, the film is not afraid to take shots at numerous aspects of society, from wealthy oligarchs to social media influencers. This all culminates in a hilarious and slightly nauseating second act during a fateful night aboard the cruise, a scene which was an absolute riot to experience at a packed screening during London Film Festival. The film’s three distinct acts all have a unique feel to them, and while it does begin to run out of steam in the third act, it retains that stinging rebuke of the wealthy.

 

 

6. Women Talking

The only film of this year’s contenders to be directed by a woman (more on this later). The very fact Sarah Polley’s powerful and furious examination of the patriarchal nature of our society and analysis of an ongoing problem in said society was at very real risk of missing out on a nomination is shambolic, and some serious conversations would need to have been had if it had missed out.

Focusing on an isolated community of Mennonite women who have been repeatedly raped and sexually assaulted by the men in their community brings an urgent meeting where the women must decide whether to stay and fight or to leave. The film, as the title suggests, is very dialogue-driven. However, Sarah Polley’s screenplay, adapted from the novel of the same name by Miriam Toews, is so powerful and so tremendously performed by every member of its cast, especially Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy, that when these women are talking, everyone in the world should be listening to what they have to say.

 

5. The Fabelmans

Steven Spielberg, a director whose career has spanned over six decades, in which time he has provided audiences with killer sharks, killer dinosaurs, an extraterrestrial who wanted to phone home, an insanely cool archaeology professor who is arguably one of the best characters in cinema history, and so much more. Yet, as seems to be a trend among filmmakers in recent times, the legendary director has made his most personal film yet, about how he discovered his love of movie-making and the people in his life who played a key role in urging him to pursue his dreams of becoming a director.

Unlike some other films recently released this year which have tried to capture the magic of cinema only to completely miss the mark, Spielberg’s film captures the importance of family and how those around us can play a significant role in shaping the career we choose to pursue, as well as a passion for the art of cinema.

 

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

Full review here

There are not many directors who can combine a really (and I mean really) bleak situation and use that as a backdrop to provide utter hilarity quite like Martin McDonagh. On its surface, his latest film is the simple story of two men and the fallout when one of them abruptly decides he doesn’t want to be friends with the other one. Yet, there is so much more to McDonagh’s screenplay than this simple premise as it explores themes of toxic masculinity, nihilism, loneliness, and pursuing creativity over friendship all against the backdrop of the Irish Civil War.

The reunion (sort of) of In Bruges stars Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell, both of whom arguably give the best performances of their careers, is fantastic to see. Yet, the show belongs to Jenny (the donkey to whom Farrell’s character holds dear) and Kerry Condon’s scene-stealing performance as the sister to Colin Farrell’s character. A fecking brilliant motion picture!

 

 

3. Avatar: The Way of Water 

Full review here

The first of two films on this list which utterly dominated at the box office this year. It had been 13 long years since the first Avatar film came out, and after such a long wait, the question as to whether audiences would be interested in a return to Pandora raged. Several months, and nearly $2.3 billion dollars as of writing this later, it is fair to say audiences this debate has been settled. Audiences were interested and proved to the naysayers you should never ever bet against James Cameron.

With the visuals being a key selling point for the first film when it opened back in 2009, the question would have been how to surpass those this time around? And it would be fair to say they did just that, the use of pioneering new motion capture technology all while actually shooting these scenes underwater provided the film with some breathtaking visual majesty which is completely awe-inspiring to look at. Much can be said of the film’s script and how it is in many ways a retread of the first film, but when the last hour hits, it never lets up and reinforces Cameron’s talent for crafting terrifically compelling action.

 

2. Top Gun: Maverick 

Full review here

The second sequel among this year’s nominees and the film which, before The Way of Water came along, was the undisputed champion of the box office in 2022.  When it finally took to the skies last summer (after numerous delays), it was the film which as Steven Spielberg himself admitted to its star Tom Cruise might have just saved the cinematic experience as we know it.

Right from the very first moment when Kenny Loggins’s “Highway to the Danger Zone” blasts over scenes of jets taking off from a military warship, the film hits those nostalgic notes right off the bat runway. Yet, what this legacy sequel pulls off so successfully is it adds a real sense of emotional weight to the story, particularly for Cruise’s Maverick and certain decisions he has made across a 30-year career as a naval aviator. Furthermore, I cannot talk about this film without mentioning the aerial combat sequences, which were utterly exhilarating to watch. A perfect example of how to do a legacy sequel, and one that takes my breath away every time I rewatch it.

 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once 

Full review here

What more is there to say about A24’s highest-grossing film of all time? Ever since it had its premiere in March last year at South by Southwest, the word of mouth for this film, and the insane level of hype surrounding it, was simply unprecedented. Was it actually going to live up to the hype when it finally opened on our shores in May? As you might have guessed from its position on this list, the answer is an emphatic yes.

I genuinely have no idea how writers/directors The Daniels concocted such a wacky, bonkers, insane and genius script which threw everything into the mix and somehow made it all work. The film had everything, multiversal travel, hotdog fingers, tremendous kung-fu-inspired fight scenes, googly eyes, and a genuinely very emotional scene with two rocks. But above all else, an impactful and moving family drama with one of, if not the best performances the legend that is Michelle Yeoh has given throughout her extraordinary career, as well as a wonderful performance from Ke Huy Quan, who will be one of the best Supporting Actor winners we’ve had in a long time. It was, for many people, the film which defined cinema in 2022 and it fully deserves its status as the best picture frontrunner, and will be one of the best victories of all time should it crown its phenomenal awards-season success.

 

Could/should have been nominated…

 

So there you have it, that is my ranking of the ten films up for Best Picture. However, I always like to hypothesise what could have been, because for me there are some films which really should have been included in this year’s race. Therefore, if I was an Oscar voter, my ballot for the ten films to be nominated would be to remove, Tar, Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front, and replace them with:

She Said (review). In the same vein as last year when Ridley Scott’s powerful historical drama The Last Duel was snubbed entirely across the board last year, the absence of Maria Schrader’s tremendous film about how two reporters from The New York Times broke the story about Harvey Weinstein’s rampant sexual abuse led to the rise of the important #MeToo and Time’s Up movements is bemusing, to put it kindly. The film had an incredibly difficult job, given this is very recent history, to portray this story in a careful manner, and they did exactly that. Had it been nominated (as it should have done), it would have sent a real message of support to those who suffered at the hands of Weinstein. A real missed opportunity by the Academy.

The Woman King (review). Another brilliant film directed by a woman, and another which has been inexcusably overlooked by the Academy. So often, when a historical epic is brought to the big screen, it is from the perspective of men, such as Gladiator or Braveheart. This is precisely what made Gina Prince-Bythewood’s film so unique, that it centred on one of the few all-female armies in recorded history. Yes, it does take some liberties with the true story of the Agoije, this is not uncommon when bringing a true story to the big screen. Its extraordinary cast, led by an exceptional Viola Davis all shine, and it was just an epic time at the movies. Like with She Said, this is an incredible film which should have been nominated in all of the above-the-line categories, but the very fact it wasn’t nominated for anything at all feels particularly egregious.

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (review). A snub which is not as egregious as the ones mentioned so far, given that the brilliant sequel to Knives Out, got the adapted screenplay nomination it deserved. But, given the aforementioned screenplay nod, I am surprised to see it didn’t crop up anywhere else because it was definitely deserving of multiple nominations, given it clearly must be liked by the Academy. Supporting Actress for Janelle Monae did feel like a long shot due to how crowded that category is, but a nomination for costumes at the very least seemed a sure bet. Perhaps, the Academy is holding everything back for when the third Benoit Blanc film is released? Let’s hope so.

Posted in 2020-2029, Awards Season, Oscars

94th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Posted on by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Well, it’s that time of year again. After the elongated awards season window of the 93rd Academy Awards due to the pandemic, the current awards season we’ve had feels somewhat shortened. But in that time, we’ve had the welcome return of cinemas, and there’s nothing better than seeing films where they belong, on the big screen. With that, a plethora of brilliant and exciting films have been recognised by the Academy this year and Hollywood’s biggest night is once again upon us.

Last year’s scaled-down ceremony was a controversy-free event, until the ending when a change-up of the presenting order meant it all went very badly wrong. This year, the controversy has almost been ever-present as the absolutely nonsensical idea of presenting some of the categories off-air has been resurrected. Spoiling the moment of glory for those prospective winners and denying them their moment in the spotlight. A ceremony that honours the craft of movies and movie-making should be giving every recipient of an Oscar a chance to have their moment in the spotlight and this decision does a disservice to all those nominees.

Despite this ridiculous decision, there are still 23 golden statues up for grabs, the question remains as to who will claim Oscar glory? Time to have a gaze at my metaphorical crystal ball and give my predictions, as well as give my thoughts on each category, minus the documentaries and the short films.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
  • Troy Kotsur – CODA
  • Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
  • J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Kicking things off is a race that, for the third year in a row, has seen double nominees from the same film, after Judas and the Black Messiah and The Irishman. Apart from previous winner J.K. Simmons’s nomination, the rest of the pack are picking up their first nominations. Simmons’s nomination in Being the Ricardos is a sign that Aaron Sorkin’s latest film is well-loved by the Actors branch, but given that Ricardos is the only one without a Best Picture nomination, Simmons’s chances of a repeat win are extremely unlikely, especially as he’s very much bringing up the rear in this crop of performances. Plemons does great work, but he’s very much outshone by his co-stars. Ciarán Hinds’s beautiful turn as the cheeky Grandpa in Belfast would be a worthy winner, as would his co-star Jamie Dornan, who really should have been nominated ahead of Simmons for my money.

However, throughout this race, it’s very much been a battle between CODA‘s Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee’s layered work in The Power of the Dog. CODA‘s ensemble win at the SAG awards could tip the scales in Kotsur’s favour. He would make history as the first male deaf actor to win an Oscar, and his turn as the raunchy but heartfelt father in CODA was hilarious and emotional, he was able to break your heart with just one word.

Will Win: Troy Kotsur 

Should Win: Troy Kotsur

Could have been nominated: Jamie Dornan for Belfast

 

Best Supporting Actress

  • Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
  • Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
  • Judi Dench – Belfast
  • Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
  • Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

As was the case with Supporting Actor, there’s one performance that can be discounted right out of the gate, as her film lacks a Best Picture nomination, which is a shame as Jessie Buckley’s work in The Lost Daughter outshines her co-stars. Kirsten Dunst has finally landed a nomination, and it’s quite fitting that she’s nominated the same year that her husband Jesse Plemons receives his first nomination. To go toe-to-toe with Will Smith is not an easy feat but Aunjanue Ellis’s performance manages exactly that. Judi Dench’s turn in Belfast was a welcome return to form for her after appearing in a couple of critical and commercial flops, but with eight nominations under her belt, she didn’t need another nomination, especially when her co-star Caitriona Balfe had the more emotionally impactful role which was much more deserving of a nomination.

However, there’s been one performance that has emerged as the clear favourite. Ever since West Side Story was finally opened to audiences, Ariana DeBose’s performance as Anita has swept all before her. It’s quite poetic that 60 years after Rita Moreno’s historic win in this very same category, playing the same character, that history will repeat itself. DeBose will also become the first openly queer actress to win this award. This is an exceedingly competitive category, but Ruth Negga’s brilliant and nuanced work in Passing being overlooked is a massive head-scratching snub.

Will Win:  Ariana DeBose

Should Win: Ariana DeBose

Could have been nominated: Catriona Balfe for Belfast or Ruth Negga for Passing

Best Original Screenplay

  • Belfast – Written by Kenneth Branagh
  • Don’t Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
  • King Richard – Written by Zach Baylin
  • Licorice Pizza – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Worst Person in the World – Written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Along with his nominations for Best Picture, and Best Director, Kenneth Branagh has written himself into Oscars history as the first person to be recognised in seven separate categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Live-Action Short). It’s an extraordinary achievement for Branagh and he deserves to crown that with an Oscar for his beautiful semi-autobiographical film, especially given that he’s unlikely to triumph in the Director or Picture category. Yet there’s a chance that Licorice Pizza could rain on Branagh’s parade and end Paul Thomas Anderson’s long wait for an Oscar. Plus, The Worst Person in the World is wildly popular and could be the dark horse of this year’s race.

Will Win: Belfast 

Should Win: Belfast

Should have been nominated: Fran Kanz for Mass

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • CODA – Screenplay by Sian Heder
  • Drive My Car – Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
  • Dune – Screenplay by Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
  • The Lost Daughter – Screenplay by Maggie Gyllenhaal
  • The Power of the Dog – Screenplay by Jane Campion

The first of several races this year that represents a fight between the two films that are the heavy favourites to be picking up the biggest prize of the night. The Power of the Dog was for a long time the heavy favourite for this award, but at the 11th hour, CODA charmed its way into hearts and minds and is poised to snatch several awards out of the dog’s jaws, and steal the thunder from Campion’s film, and it potentially won’t be for the first time if it does. However, the support Drive My Car is very strong and it could yet gazump everyone else in this category, and drive away with the Oscar.

Will Win: CODA

Should Win: CODA

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Animated Feature Film

  • Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, and Clark Spencer
  • Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, and Charlotte De La Gournerie
  • Luca – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
  • The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Kurt Albrecht
  • Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer, and Peter Del Vecho

An impressively strong crop of nominees, and you could make a case for each of these films to triumph. Ever since this award was first introduced in 2001, a non-Disney film has only taken home the trophy six out of twenty times. With the House of Mouse representing three of the five nominees, another Disney success is on the cards as Encanto is the strong favourite to take home the statue. However, The Mitchells Vs The Machines is such an innovative and hilarious animated film about the perils of technology that is more than capable of extinguishing Encanto‘s miracle. It makes it all the more frustrating that it likely won’t, even though I do like Encanto.

But this crop could have been even stronger, as the exclusion of Mamoru Hosada’s magnificent Belle could and, maybe should have, taken the spot of one of the three Disney films.

Will Win: Encanto 

Should Win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Should have been nominated: Belle

Best International Feature Film

  • Drive My Car (Japan)  – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
  • Flee (Denmark) – directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen
  • The Hand of God (Italy) –  directed by Paolo Sorrentino
  • Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan) – directed by Pawo Choyning Dorji
  • The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – directed by Joachim Trier

Drive My Car‘s Best Picture nominee status makes this one a pretty foregone conclusion.

Will Win: Drive My Car

Should Win: Drive My Car 

Best Original Score

  • Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
  • Dune – Hans Zimmer
  • Encanto – Germaine Franco
  • Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
  • The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

The power of a great score is that within just a few notes, it can transport you to the setting of that particular film in a heartbeat, and no score this year typifies that than Hans Zimmer’s masterful work in Dune. 2021 was a stellar year for the legendary composer as well as reuniting with Denis Villeneuve to bring the world of Arrakis to life, his work for Daniel Craig’s final bow as James Bond in No Time To Die was also worthy of praise and could have seen Zimmer get two nominations. In either case, Zimmer’s wait for that second Oscar is coming to an end.

Someone else who also could have got two nominations is Jonny Greenwood. He has been producing some truly stellar scores over the last few years, and could and have got in this category twice for his stunning work in Spencer. His score for The Power of The Dog is tremendous, but the Power of the Dog is no match for desert power.

Will Win: Hans Zimmer 

Should Win: Hans Zimmer

Could have been nominated: Harry Gregson-Williams for The Last Duel 

Best Original Song

  • “Be Alive” from King Richard – Music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
  • “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto – Music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
  • “Down to Joy” from Belfast – Music and lyrics by Van Morrison
  • “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
  • “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren

Poor Diane Warren. Despite a staggering 13 nominations in this category, her wait for that first win is likely to go on, as this year’s race is looking like it will be a two-way fight between Lin-Manuel Miranda and Billie Eilish. The last two Bond films have both taken home this award, so the odds look good for Billie Eilish. However, if Miranda wins, he will become the youngest person in history to claim the EGOT. Miranda had a truly stellar 2021, and the EGOT would be the best way to reward his extraordinary achievements, especially as “Dos Oruguitas” is a heartbreakingly beautiful and emotional ballad. If it were to triumph, it would be a worthy winner to go with Encanto‘s likely Best Animated Feature Oscar.

It’s just a shame that they couldn’t nominate the irresistibly catchy and chart sensation “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” as well.

Will Win:  No Time To Die

Should Win: Encanto

Best Sound

  • Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, and Niv Adiri
  • Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett
  • No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, and Mark Taylor
  • The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, and Tara Webb
  • West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy

Like so many technical aspects of Denis Villeneuve’s masterpiece, the sound is one of the aspects that made it such an enthralling experience on the biggest screen possible. The work of Dune’s sound team helped bring the world of Arrakis to life in such a spectacular way and so they will be richly deserved winners of this trophy.

That being said, the work of the sound teams in No Time to Die and West Side Story are very strong and could upset the spice cart.

Will Win: Dune 

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Production Design

  • Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
  • Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
  • The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
  • The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
  • West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

As was the case with the Sound category, the Production Design played an integral role in bringing the visual majesty of Arrakis to life. Dune has got potential to completely sweep through these production/technical categories, and given it has picked up a couple of the precursors, I think it will do so. However, there could be some surprises and one such surprise could be here as Guillermo Del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. The fact it did get into the Best Picture race shows there is support for it out there among the voters and if the Academy wants to spread the love, then this could be the opportunity for them to do so.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Cinematography

  • Dune – Greig Fraser
  • Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
  • The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
  • The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
  • West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski

Five absolutely immaculately shot films makes this an insanely hard category to predict, as any of these cinematographers would be worthy of winning this award. Ari Wegner makes history as the second woman to be nominated in this category following Rachel Morrison’s ground-breaking nomination for Mudbound at the 90th Academy Awards, but it could have been even better had Claire Mathon also been nominated for Spencer. A triumph for Wegner would be a welcome (and long overdue) victory. However, given that he’s recently captured plaudits for his magnificent work in The Batman, it could tip the scales in Greig Fraser’s favour.

Will Win: Dune 

Should Win:  Dune

Should have been nominated: Claire Mathon for Spencer or Linus Sandgren for No Time To Die

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, and Carla Farmer
  • Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, and Julia Vernon
  • Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr
  • The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh
  • House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, and Frederic Aspiras

As impressive as the make-up and hairstyling work in films like House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye is, when you realise the amount of work that was required to transform Stellan Skarsgard into the villainous Baron Harkonnen in Dune, this should be a no-brainer, but if Best Actress goes in a certain direction (more on that later), this could go in a different direction.

Will Win:  The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Costume Design

  • Cruella – Jenny Beavan
  • Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini
  • Dune – Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan
  • Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
  • West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

There’s some really impressive work across this category, but Cruella has been sweeping this category and those flashy and colourful dresses will power Jenny Beaven to her third Oscar.

Will Win: Cruella

Should Win: Cruella

Should have been nominated: Janty Yates for The Last Duel

Best Film Editing

  • Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin
  • Dune – Joe Walker
  • King Richard – Pamela Martin
  • The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras
  • tick, tick… BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Editing and the now lone sound categories often go hand-in-hand with each other, so with that in mind, Dune should be locked. Yet, Pamela Martin took home the American Cinema Editor Award in the Drama category for her work in King Richard. Meanwhile, tick, tick… BOOM! triumphed in the Comedy or Musical category, which puts it in contention. However, the lack of a Best Picture nom will probably count against the latter. Dune’s desert power will see it triumph in a number of technical categories, but the wonderful work of Pamela Martin with the tennis scenes in King Richard was absolutely pulsating to watch.

Game. Set, and the Oscar goes to King Richard.

Will Win:  King Richard 

Should Win: King Richard

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Visual Effects

  • Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristen Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer
  • Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick
  • No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould
  • Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver
  • Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick

With its status as the lone Best Picture nominee here, and an enthralling combination of practical and visual effects, there’s nothing stopping Dune, not even an itsy bitsy Spider-Man.

Will Win: Dune 

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Suicide Squad

Best Director

  • Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
  • Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
  • Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
  • Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

At the 66th Academy Awards, Campion and Spielberg went head to head in this category for Schindler’s List and The Piano respectively, with Spielberg emerging victorious. Though this time, with The Power of The Dog emerging as this year’s frontrunner, Campion is the heavy favourite to triumph here, even with some controversy following her completely unnecessary remarks against Venus and Serena Williams at the Critics Choice. ‘

This is one category where CODA cannot stop The Power of the Dog. If Campion does triumph, it would make her the third woman to win this award, and the first time two women have won this award in consecutive years. However, the absurdity of nominating Dune for just about everything else, except for the guy whose vision made it all possible is absolute madness. Hopefully, the Academy is keeping this award safe for Villeneuve for when the time comes to honour Dune: Part Two.

Will Win: Jane Campion

Should Win: Jane Campion

Could have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
  • Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM! 
  • Will Smith – King Richard
  • Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Throughout this awards season, there have been four names consistently cropping up in this race: Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith and Washington. All of whom are thoroughly deserving of their nominations. Washington’s performance in Macbeth is strong, but it’s not the finest performance of his career. Whereas for Cumberbatch and Garfield, this is most definitely the case. Similarly, Smith’s turn as Richard Williams, also represents some of his finest ever work.

The question as to who that fifth nominee could be was the source of much speculation. Given that the aforementioned four gentlemen have all been nominated before, there was an opportunity to hand someone their first-time nomination. Newcomer Jude Hill’s sweet and impactful debut performance in Belfast or to give Peter Dinklage’s beautiful performance in Cyrano would both have been very well deserved recipients of that nomination. Performances from giant blockbusters seldom cross into the Oscars, but a nomination for Daniel Craig for his final bow as James Bond in No Time To Die would also have been a worthy nominee. Instead, it feels like the Academy would have been a more worthy nomination than Bardem’s turn in Being the Ricardos, a nomination that’s just so safe and boring, that it’s extremely unsatisfying.

Yet irrespective of who that fifth nominee was in the end, it matters not because it will be the third time’s the charm for Will Smith, as nothing will stop him from collecting his first Oscar for his magnificent work portraying Richard Williams in King Richard. 

Will Win: Will Smith

Should Win: Will Smith

Should have been nominated: Jude Hill for Belfast or Peter Dinklage for Cyrano 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  • Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
  • Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
  • Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
  • Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Last year, this award was one of the most exciting and unpredictable races, and it looks like history is repeating itself. This year’s race is proving to be equally chaotic. With no one having the advantage of their film being a Best Picture nominee, it’s an extremely open race. However, unlike last year, this particular race feels quite weak by comparison.

Ever since Spencer first screened, Stewart was widely seen as the frontrunner, and fully deservingly so for her mesmerising and transformative turn as Princess Diana. Yet that early momentum evaporated, and there were question marks as to whether she would even secure that nomination, which would have been one of the biggest snubs in Oscars history. Cruz’s work in Parallel Mothers was a deeply powerful performance that even without their films getting Best Picture nominations, and also without picking up any of the precursor nominations, these performances are thoroughly deserving of their nominations. Jessica Chastain certainly goes all in with her Eyes of Tammy Faye performance, but ultimately it feels like a performance that’s a bit too flashy and is a case of style over substance.

Kidman’s nomination is probably the most deserving out of the three Ricardos nominations, but likewise, with her two co-stars, her nomination feels so uninspiring due to the sheer blandness of the film around her. The Academy clearly loves Olivia Colman, and while she was good in The Lost Daughter, she has definitely put in better performances in her career. Ultimately, the nominations of Colman and Kidman feel like nominations that are based purely on their name, and that’s really disappointing as the Academy really should have recognised the work from some of the Best Picture nominees, like Rachel Zegler from West Side Story or Emilia Jones from CODA, both of whom were far more deserving of nominations than Colman or Kidman.

But, like Will Smith, this is Chastain’s third nomination. She’s picked up a couple of the precursor awards, and if Tammy Faye takes home the Hair and Makeup Oscar, this could align for the first Oscar for Chastain. But honestly, it’s anyone’s guess.

However, what also really stings is the lack of nominations for actresses Jodie Comer and Tessa Thompson, whose fierce and powerful performances in films like The Last Duel and Passing respectively both utterly blow the majority of the competition out of the water.

Will Win: Jessica Chastain

Should Win: Kristen Stewart

Should have been nominated: Jodie Comer for The Last Duel, Tessa Thompson for Passing or Emilia Jones for CODA

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

  • Belfast – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, and Tamar Thomas
  • CODA – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, and Patrick Wachsberger
  • Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
  • Drive My Car – Teruhisa Yamamoto
  • Dune – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve, and Cale Boyter
  • King Richard – Tim White, Trevor White, and Will Smith
  • Licorice Pizza – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, and Paul Thomas Anderson
  • Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Bradley Cooper
  • The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, and Roger Frappier
  • West Side Story – Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

It’s so pleasing to see the Academy complete the full set by giving ten films their moment in the spotlight, though some are far less deserving than others in this regard. It’s a joy to see such a mainstream juggernaut like Dune be a fierce competitor, and while it would be my choice this year, one hopes that the Academy will bestow all the awards when the time comes to honour Dune: Part Two. Parasite’s victory two years ago has opened doors for international features, and so it’s a joy to see films like Drive My Car get in the Best Picture race, though it will be great when there’s more than one international film in the race.

Netflix has been fiercely competing for its first Best Picture win over these last few years, and despite making a plethora of amazing films to try and bag that elusive Best Picture Oscar, it has not yet happened. With the most nominees this year, it was looking likely for a while that The Power of the Dog would become the first Netflix film to take home the Best Picture statute. However, Apple TV’s CODA has emerged at what has felt like at the last minute to potentially rain on Netflix’s parade.  The fact that these two films are the front runners, and that they’re both directed by women, is worthy of celebration. This really could go either way.

Will Win:  CODA 

Should Win: Dune 

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel and Passing 

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Final counts

Will win:

  • Dune – 5
  • CODA – 3
  • Eyes of Tammy Faye – 2
  • King Richard – 2 
  • Belfast – 1
  • Cruella -1 
  • Drive My Car – 1
  • Encanto – 1
  • No Time To Die – 1
  • The Power of the Dog – 1
  • West Side Story -1

Should win:

  • Dune – 8
  • CODA – 2
  • King Richard – 2 
  • Belfast -1
  • Cruella – 1 
  • Drive My Car – 1
  • Encanto – 1
  • Mitchells vs The Machines -1
  • Spencer – 1
  • West Side Story – 1