Another awards season is drawing to a close and Hollywood’s biggest night is upon us once again as the world of film prepares to celebrate the 97th Academy Awards. This year’s ceremony will undoubtedly be filled with all the usual glitz and glamour, but through it all, there will be an air of sombreness as the wildfires earlier this year caused massive devastation in their wake with countless homes destroyed. The ceremony is set to honour the city of Los Angeles and pay will also be “highlighting the strength, creativity, and optimism that defines Los Angeles”. My heart goes out to all affected by this terrible tragedy.

As the old saying goes, the show must go on, and there are 23 Oscars up for grabs, so who will have their name etched into one of those gold statuettes and etch their name into history? Here are my predictions for the 2025 Oscars. Sadly, my predictions will not include the documentaries or the short films, as I haven’t had the time to watch them.

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Kicking us off, we have the first acting race and much like last year, this is pretty much a guaranteed lock. Apart from Felicity Jones, all the other nominees are receiving their first nominations, which is always beautiful to see. She doesn’t appear in the film until after the intermission, but Jones more than makes her presence known once she does arrive. Monica Barbaro delivers a very compelling performance as folk music singer Joan Baez opposite Timothee Chalamet’s Bob Dylan. While she has comparatively the least amount of screen time as her fellow nominees, Rossellini leaves a lasting impression. Grande made a seamless transition from certified popstar to one half of the wonderful Wicked double act that effortlessly charmed audiences and no doubt had them singing “Popular” and “Defying Gravity” for days on end. For that reason, I would love to see her win, but I don’t see it happening.

Even with the controversy that has engulfed the Emilia Pérez campaign in recent weeks (more on that later), Zoe Saldaña has not let it derail her own campaign. She has been a prominent figure in the industry for several years with her work in the Avatar franchise and the Marvel Cinematic Universe which has made her one of the highest-grossing actresses of all time. She has swept all before her this awards season and it is guaranteed that she will get an Oscar, I just wish it was for a better film.

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña

Should Win: Isabella Rossellini

Could have been nominated: Margaret Qualley for The Substance

Best Animated Feature Film

Flow – Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman
Inside Out 2 – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
Memoir of a Snail – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek
The Wild Robot – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann

Throughout this year’s awards season, this category has been consistent, with these five films consistently competing in this category. Since this award began in 2001, on only eight occasions has a film which has not been made by Disney or its subsidiary Pixar emerged triumphant, with two of those wins coming in the last two years with the triumphs of Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and The Boy and the Heron. The predecessors to both Inside Out 2 and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl both took home the Oscar. However, those emotions will need to keep themselves in check as neither they nor everyone’s favourite Northern inventor and his lovable mute dog will replicate their success, despite the latter’s success as Bafta, as this award should have The Wild Robot‘s name on it and becomes Dreamworks’ third win after The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Shrek.

Will Win: The Wild Robot

Should Win: The Wild Robot

Best Original Screenplay

Anora – Written by Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Written by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David
The Substance – Written by Coralie Fargeat

Given that this represents its only nomination, September 5 is unlikely to cause an upset here. Also without an Oscar nomination, it should be enough to count Jesse Eisenberg’s moving and contemplative story about two cousins travelling around Europe to honour their late grandmother out of the race. However, the film’s success at BAFTA could be a sign that it has gained momentum at just the right time and upstage one of the three Best Picture contenders in this race. If anyone says there are no more original ideas left in Hollywood these days, these three excellent films demonstrate that this simply isn’t the case.

The Brutalist themes of striving to create something that will leave a lasting impression and the immigrant experience of trying to fulfil the American Dream are incredibly timely, while Coralie Fargeat’s script is filled with biting social satire on the pressures women to maintain their beauty standards as they get older. I would love to see her triumph but I think for his hilarious and chaotic take on a classic Cinderella story, this is Baker’s to lose.

Will Win: Anora

Should Win: The Substance

Should have been nominated: Justin Kuritzkes for Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown – Written by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave – Written by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez – Written by Jacques Audiard in collaboration with Thomas Bidegainm, Lea Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys – Written by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing – Written by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield

If the Best Picture lineup had been a bit different, this could have been a spicy race featuring five Best Picture nominees. However, since Sing Sing unfortunately didn’t obtain that Best Picture nomination, its chances of winning are sadly slim to none. Simply given the fact that the Mexican and transgender community have voiced their criticism against the film, Emilia Pérez‘s already fading hopes are now all but gone. A Complete Unknown is unlikely to surprise here too as the last musical biopic to win here was Amadeus in 1985.

Had Nickel Boys got more nominations, it might have stood more of a chance here but nothing is going to stop Peter Straughan from adding to his triumph at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA for his adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel. A dialogue-driven film such as Conclave wouldn’t have worked if the script wasn’t as brilliant as it was.

However, given the first film got a screenplay nod the lack of nomination for Dune: Part Two has me scratching my head, especially as many consider it to be a better film than its predecessor. Clearly, the spice didn’t flow sufficiently enough for the Academy…

Will Win: Conclave

Should Win: Conclave

Should have been nominated: Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man –Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado
Emilia Pérez – Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
Nosferatu – David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
The Substance –Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli
Wicked – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth

Despite some truly excellent work from the hair and makeup teams of Wicked and Nosferatu, anyone who has seen the third and bonkers final act of The Substance will realise that there is only one winner here, particularly as this category so often correlates with one of the acting categories.

Will Win: The Substance

Should Win: The Substance

Should have been nominated: Dune: Part Two

Best Production Design

The Brutalist – Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
Conclave – Production Design: Suzy Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
Dune: Part Two – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Nosferatu – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
Wicked – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Given Wicked is unlikely to garner much success in the major categories, I anticipate the Academy will look to reward it in some of the technical categories, and the filmmakers’ emphasis on practical sets is likely to help them fly to victory here.

Will Win: Wicked

Should Win: Wicked

Best Costume Design

A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips
Conclave – Lisy Christl
Gladiator II – Janty Yates and David Crossman
Nosferatu – Linda Muir
Wicked – Paul Tazewell

The Academy loves a period piece, so Nosferatu could be a blood-sucking spoiler on Wicked’s parade here, but I expect the bright and memorable costumes on display should be enough to repel the villainous Count back into the darkness from whence he came and take the Oscar.

Will Win: Wicked

Should Win: Wicked

Should have been nominated: Jacqueline West for Dune: Part Two

Best International Feature Film

Emilia Pérez (France) – directed by Jacques Audiard
Flow (Latvia) – directed by Gints Zilbalodis
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) – directed by Magnus von Horn
I’m Still Here (Brazil) – directed by Walter Salles
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) – directed by Mohammad Rasoulof

As the two Best Picture contenders, this is a straight fight between Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here. The controversy surrounding the former was happening during the voting, and while it could be the flip of a coin, I fully expect this will sink any chances it had of winning what would have seemed like a sure bet mere weeks ago.

Will Win: I’m Still Here

Should Win: I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Much like the Supporting Actress category, four of the five nominees are first-time nominees, with Edward Norton collecting his fourth nomination. Borisov becomes the first Russian to be nominated for an Oscar since 1977, and a richly deserved nomination for giving humanity to a henchman, which is not an easy feat. The fact this is Pearce’s first nomination is massively surprising given his prolific career, and as talented as Norton undoubtedly is, this shouldn’t and won’t be the film that ends his wait for a first Oscar.

What is the most eye-catching fact about this race is that after years starring for years as Kendall and Roman Roy in HBO’s Succession, Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin will be swapping boardroom drama for awards drama. Not for the first time either, as they went toe-to-toe with each other during the Emmys in 2023. Strong’s portrayal of the vulgar and unpleasant lawyer Roy Cohn showcases Cohn’s thoroughly repulsive character, yet he manages to add a layer of sympathy for someone we should have not one iota of sympathy for, given Cohn helped to create the monster that his protege became, while Culkin plays a not nearly as rich version of Roman Roy.

I would love to see one of Guy Pearce or Jeremy Strong win, but much like the Emmys race, Culkin will get the better of his on-screen brother as he has swept all before him in this awards season and will put him halfway towards becoming an EGOT.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Should Win: Guy Pearce

Could have been nominated: Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing or Denzel Washington for Gladiator II

Best Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus – Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan
Better Man – Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs
Dune: Part Two – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke
Wicked – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould

In a competition between Xenomorphs, incredibly realistic CGI apes, the wild animals of Oz and Sandworms, the power of the sandworms should be power over all of its competitors.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist – Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez – Paul Guilhaume
Maria – Ed Lachman
Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke

Another nomination for Emilia Pérez which has me scratching my head, as while the cinematography wasn’t bad, it pales in comparison to the brilliant work of the other four cinematographers on display here. Fraser’s work on Dune: Part Two is mesmerising to look at and could very well bag him another Oscar after he won for his work on the first Dune film. Ed Lachman collects his fourth nomination and is his film’s sole shot at bagging an Oscar, while Jarin Blaschke continues to reap the rewards of his incredible partnership with Robert Eggers. His work in Nosferatu was truly atmospheric and haunting and should be a stake through the heart of its competitors.

However, Lol Crawley’s breathtaking work, shooting the film in VistaVision revived that format, and the results were simply stunning to look at.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Should Win: Nosferatu

Could have been nominated: Stéphane Fontaine for Conclave Sayombhu Mukdeeprom for Challengers

Best Original Score

The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Conclave – Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez – Clément Ducol and Camille
Wicked – John Powell and Camille Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers

Justice for Hans Zimmer, who should have been nominated and be winning again for his magnificent work on Dune: Part Two, yet he was disqualified as it failed to meet the eligibility requirements, as Academy rules state that a nominee must have at least 80% original content in their composition. I would love to see Kris Bowers win for his wonderful work on The Wild Robot, while past winner Volker Bertelmann’s string-heavy score is also a contender, the “Overture” track from The Brutalist, which plays during that very memorable intro scene as Laszlo Toth arrives in the USA, is undeniably powerful and so that will probably propel Blumberg to victory.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Should Win: The Wild Robot

Should have been nominated: Hans Zimmer for Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

A Complete Unknown – Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
Dune: Part Two – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill
Emilia Pérez – Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
Wicked – Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis
The Wild Robot – Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts

Anyone who felt the thunderous roar of the sandworms, particularly in IMAX, will know there should be no contest here.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Should have been nominated: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Original Song

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez – Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight – Music and lyrics by Dianne Warren
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing – Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez – Music and lyrics by Clément Ducol and Camille
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late – Music and lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin

Another year, another nomination for Dianne Warren, which brings her total number of nominations to 16 without a single victory. Surely her run of no victories has to come to an end at some point, but it will not be this year as this award will unfortunately go to one of the two songs from Emilia Pérez. Although, two songs from Emilia Pérez received nominations, while Maren Morris’s beautiful “Kiss The Sky” from The Wild Robot has been snubbed will remain as mystifying as how Emilia Perez got all those nominations in the first place.

Will Win: Emilia Pérez

Should Win: Sing Sing

Should have been nominated: “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

Best Film Editing

Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó
Conclave – Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez – Juliette Welfling
Wicked – Myron Kerstein

Sound and editing often go hand in hand here, but given Dune: Part Two is nowhere to be found here, this feels like all of the nominees have a shot. Musicals like Emilia Perez and Wicked have very flashy editing, while Sean Baker’s editing for Anora helps the film to be the wild chaotic ride that it is, I do feel it stalls a little bit towards the end. Even with the built-in intermission, to make three-and-a-half hours fly by is a testament to Dávid Jancsó’s work on The Brutalist, so that could prevail here. However, Conclave’s editing is taut and well-paced in a very dialogue-driven film, so the divine powers that be should help it win here.

Will Win: Conclave

Should Win: Conclave

Best Director

Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

There was much speculation on nominations morning as to whether Coralie Fargeat would miss out on a nomination, but thankfully, she secured a well-deserved nomination and became only the tenth woman to be nominated in this category. I would love to see her become the fourth woman to win and follow in the footsteps of Kathryn Bigelow, Chloe Zhao and Jane Campion, for her bold and brilliant satirical body horror, but this race is essentially a battle between Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. There is a chance Baker could, assuming my prediction is correct, add this award to his potential screenplay win. Although, given what Corbet managed to accomplish with his vast and ambitious historical epic, and on a budget of just $10m, that is a seriously impressive achievement and so I have a sneaky feeling that may just tip the scales in Corbet’s favour and ensure he adds to his BAFTA win. Much as though I want Fargeat to win, which is really saying something for me as I am most definitely not an avid horror fan, Corbet would be a deserving winner.

Although, yet again, how the Academy has failed to recognise the phenomenal accomplishment of Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two when he made the best film of last year is just… le sigh

Will Win: Brady Corbet

Should Win: Brady Corbet

Could have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two or Edward Berger for Conclave

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Unlike the supporting actor categories which are pretty much foregone conclusions. there is a chance the other two acting categories could throw up some surprises. Best Actress, in particular, is looking like it might be heading that way, but there is still a chance for something unpredictable to happen. First of all, despite the controversy surrounding her old tweets, Gascon’s nomination is historic as she is the first openly transgender actor to be nominated for an Academy Award, which is historic and hopefully the first of many more to come. The controversy surrounding her means she is unlikely to win. Erivo’s nomination is also significant as she became only the second black woman, after Viola Davis, to receive multiple nominations in this category, which shows there is much progress to be made. However, she too is probably unlikely to win as this is shaping up to be a battle between industry veteran Moore and relative newcomer Madison.

Moore has a slight advantage following her wins at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards, and she continued that streak with a win at BAFTA, this likely would have also been a nailed-on win for Moore, yet Madison’s win at BAFTA has catapulted her back into the race. Although with her win at the Screen Actors Guild awards, Moore clearly has the love and backing of her fellow actors, plus has the comeback narrative on her side as well and we have seen in recent years that translate into a win. Chaos can very easily ensue with this award but, Moore should come through.

Will Win: Demi Moore

Should Win: Demi Moore

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Much like with Best Actress, this race between these five gentlemen is looking like it is pointing towards a foregone conclusion. It was always going to be interesting – given the current resident in the White House – if the Academy would nominate Stan for his portrayal of a younger Trump in his younger days before he became the most divisive of political figures. Stan becomes the eighth actor to be nominated for portraying a US president, but he is highly unlikely to be the first. Without that Best Picture nomination, Domingo is also unlikely to win. However given this is his second nomination in as many years, I fully expect he will get his moment in the spotlight sooner rather than later.

Ralph Fiennes has been consistently brilliant across a glittering career having garnered three Oscar nominations, yet somehow hasn’t won, so there is an overdue narrative on his side. Had he won at the BAFTAs, it could have made this race very interesting and despite BAFTA showering Conclave with numerous awards, he was not among them. Chalamet became the third youngest nominee for Best Actor when he received his first nomination in 2018 and became the youngest two-time Best Actor nominee, a record previously held by James Dean. Much like Domingo, it is surely a case if when not if Chalamet collects an Oscar. If he did win, he would become the youngest Best Actor winner of all time and would break a record held by a certain Adrien Brody, who won his first Oscar for The Pianist back in 2003. If Brody did emerge triumphant, he would become the first actor to win in this category with his first two nominations.

Chalamet’s win at SAG could throw a spanner into the works, yet I am backing Brody to make history for his towering portrayal of a Hungarian-Jewish immigrant looking to fulfil the American Dream after emigrating from post-WW2 Europe. A fitting victory given the hostile and foul rhetoric being spewed towards immigrants by the current US administration.

Will Win: Adrien Brody

Should Win: Ralph Fiennes

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

Anora – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim, and Brady Corbet
A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman
Conclave – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman
Dune: Part Two – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve
Emilia Pérez – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard
I’m Still Here –Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira
Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, and Eric Fellner
Wicked – Marc Platt

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

Last but not least, the big prize. In the past two years, this race has been a pretty foregone conclusion with Everything Everywhere All At Once and Oppenheimer both collecting seven awards before sweeping their way to winning Best Picture at the 95th and 96th Oscars respectively. This year however, there is no clear and obvious frontrunner, and is the most wide-open race we have had in quite some time. If I had my way, Dune: Part Two would be powering its way to victory like a Sandworm traversing the desert plains of Arrakis, but that is very unlikely to happen.

Up until a few weeks ago, since it secured the most nominations, Emilia Pérez might have taken this, but the controversy over its leading actress has brought any momentum it might have had. Conclave‘s success at the BAFTAs means it could be a potential spoiler to rain on Anora’s parade. Academy voters determine the winner using a preferential ballot and so in such a race where there is no frontrunner, with Conclave being generally well-liked across the board, it may pull off a surprise of biblical proportions. The only film I would have been majorly dissatisfied to see win would be Emilia Pérez, but with that film’s chances of winning all but over, I will be delighted for whoever does take home the big prize of the night.

Will Win: Anora

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Should have been nominated: Sing Sing

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Final counts

Will win:

The Brutalist – 4 (Director, Leading Actor, Score, and Cinematography)
Anora – 2 (Picture and Original Screenplay)
Conclave – 2 (Adapted Screenplay and Editing)
Dune: Part Two – 2 (Sound and Visual Effects)
Emilia Perez – 2 (Supporting Actress and Original Song)
The Substance – 2 (Best Actress and Makeup and Hairstyling)
Wicked – 2 (Best Costumes and Production Design)
A Real Pain – 1 (Supporting Actor)
I’m Still Here – 1 (International Feature)
The Wild Robot – 1 (Animated Feature)

Should win:

Conclave – 4 (Leading Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing)
Dune: Part Two – 3 (Picture, Visual Effects and Sound)
The Substance – 3 (Best Actress, Original Screenplay and Makeup and Hairstyling)
The Brutalist – 2 (Supporting Actor and Director)
The Wild Robot – 2 (Animated Feature and Score)
Wicked – 2 (Best Costumes and Production Design)
I’m Still Here – 1 (International Feature)
Nosferatu – 1 (Cinematography)
Sing Sing – 1 (Orignal Song)