95th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Posted on March 12, 2023March 12, 2023 by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Another awards season is poised to come to a close, and so it is time to celebrate the best of the best that cinema had to offer with the 95th Academy Awards. All in all, 2022 was a solid year for cinema, especially given the struggles it has had to endure for these previous two years. After the mess of last year’s ceremony where some of the awards were inexcusably presented off the air, the Academy has thankfully not carried this nonsensical idea over to this year’s ceremony.

So, without further ado, with 23 of those prestigious trophies up for grabs, here are my predictions for who will be clutching one of those iconic golden statues at the end of the evening.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

We kick off with easily the most stacked acting category this year where there is a plethora of performances which could have been in the final five. But for now, let’s focus on those who were nominated. The nominations of both Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu mark the first time two Asian actresses have scored nominations in this category in the same year, and apart from Bassett, everyone else is picking up their first nomination. It looked for a while as though Hsu might miss out but it’s a relief she made it as her performance is a crucial part of her film’s narrative. Meanwhile, Jamie Lee Curtis’s performance in the same film feels like a culmination of everything she has brought to the industry across a five-decade-long career, which could explain her win at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. She probably wouldn’t have made the top five given the fierce competition, but it is nonetheless fantastic to see a legend like her be given her first nomination.

The two front runners are by far and away Kerry Condon and Angela Bassett, the latter of whom’s nomination marks the first time an acting performance in a Marvel Cinematic Universe film has received an Oscar nomination. Like Curtis, Bassett is a legend of the industry and yet somehow this is only her second nomination following 1993’s What’s Love Got to do With It. Despite Condon’s win at BAFTA, this trophy should have Bassett’s name on it, which when you watch her performance, especially the throne room speech in Wakanda Forever, where her grief and pain over the loss of Chadwick Boseman is painfully felt, there should be only one clear winner.

It says a lot about the insane competition this year when the likes of Janelle Monae (Glass Onion), Samantha Morton (She Said), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch and Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King) and Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), all of whom would have been worthy of a nomination, can’t even get a look in.

Will Win: Angela Bassett

Should Win: Angela Bassett

Could have been nominated: See all of the above

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

For the fourth year in a row, this category has two actors from the same film competing for the Best Supporting Actor trophy, with everyone apart from Judd Hirsch picking up their first nominations, which is wonderful to see. It might have been a full set of first-timers had Paul Dano been nominated for The Fabelmans, as many had predicted. Sadly, for Dano, his wait for his first nomination goes on.

He might not have been on screen for very long, but Hirsch’s Uncle Boris certainly left an impression in The Fabelmans. Brian Tyree Henry’s nomination came thoroughly out of the left field as he has been largely ignored throughout all of this awards season, but it is extremely satisfying to see him included as his performance in Causeway deserved recognition. The work of both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin is some of the best work of their respective careers, both working effortlessly alongside Colin Farrell to great effect, However, out of all the acting categories, this one feels the closest to a lock as, despite Keoghan’s triumph at the BAFTAs, there is no scenario, in this universe or in any multiverses, where Ke Huy Quan does not walk away with the Oscar for his brilliant work as Waymond, the goofy, multiverse-travelling husband to Michelle Yeoh’s Evelyn.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan

Could have been nominated: Paul Dano for The Fabelmans

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin – Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans – Written by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Tár – Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness – Written by Ruben Ostlund

A battle of the Best Picture contenders, which makes picking an immediate frontrunner at first glance seems difficult. Yet, with both The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once having garnered the most nominations, it is likely this award will go to one of those two films. EEAAO is likely to dominate in some of the other big categories, including Best Director for The Daniels, so this could be the Academy’s chance to share the love, which is something they don’t always do. Three out of four of McDonagh’s films have been nominated for this award, so perhaps, given the Daniels seem to be odds on to win the Oscar for Best Director, this could be the moment to give McDonagh his dues.

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should have been nominated: Dana Stevens for The Woman King

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front – Screenplay by Edward Berger Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Screenplay by Rian Johnson
Living – Screenplay by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie
Women Talking – Screenplay by Sarah Polley

All awards season long, this award really felt as though it only had Sarah Polley’s name on it for her excellent adaption of Miraim Tews’ novel. Although given the film was bafflingly snubbed by BAFTA, it could have completely lost its momentum, particularly as All Quiet on The Western Front conquered all before it at BAFTA. But, its presence in the Best Picture race shows there is a lot of support for the film, and a victory for Women Talking would see a woman win this category for three consecutive years, which would be wonderful to see.

Will Win: Women Talking

Should Win: Women Talking

Should have been nominated: Rebecca Lenkiewicz for She Said

Best Animated Feature Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Guillermo del Toro Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
The Sea Beast – Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Turning Red – Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Given it was released in March and inexcusably did not receive a cinema release, it is a relief to see Turning Red land a nomination, given it was easily the best-animated film Disney or Pixar released last year. However, with this being the only representative from the House of Mouse in this year’s crop of nominees, could Disney’s iron grip on this category be loosening?

Six of the 21 winners in this category have come from films produced either by Disney or its sister studio Pixar, but this year will make it the seventh non-Disney/Pixar winner. It will ultimately come down to the two films, with wishes at the heart of them. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is Dreamworks’ best film in years, and the cat has got my tongue and my vote. However, given the sheer labour of love in which Guillermo del Toro and his incredible team of artists brought one of the best interpretations of this classic tale to life, this is Pinocchio’s to lose.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Win: Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) – directed by Edward Berger
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) – directed by Santiago Mitre
Close (Belgium) – directed by Lukas Dhont
EO (Poland) – directed by Jerzy Skolimowski
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) – directed by Colm Bairéad

There’s only one film here which is a Best Picture nominee, so it will be all quiet on the upset front.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should have been nominated: Decision to Leave (South Korea)

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front – Nicholas Volker Bertelmann
Babylon – Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Son Lux
The Fabelmans – John Williams

My head wants to say this award will be going to Justin Hurwitz for his insanely catchy score to Babylon. The film divided audiences, but no one can deny the irresistibly catchy nature of Hurwitz’s work, as whenever he collaborates with Damien Chazelle, the results are always spectacular. But, could Babylon’s divisive nature scupper a prospective win? With his staggering 53rd nomination at the age of 90, this makes the legendary John Williams the oldest nominee in Oscars history, and the second most nominated individual ever after a certain Walt Disney. The Fabelmans is probably unlikely to pick up any awards anywhere else, so this could be the time to bestow Williams with his sixth Oscar, but I’m going to say Babylon will prevail.

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz

Should Win: Justin Hurwitz

Should have been nominated: Michael Giacchino for The Batman

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell it Like a Woman – Music and lyrics by Dianne Warren
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR – Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose
“This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All At Once – Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

With every awards season that comes around, it is practically a given Dianne Warren will find herself nominated for Best Original Song, even if it is for a film few people have heard of. One of these days a nomination is going to turn into a win for her, but it will not be this year.

After her success in winning this award for A Star is Born, Lady Gaga could definitely claim her second trophy for her moving song from Top Gun: Maverick, while Rihanna’s long-awaited return to music brought us the deeply moving and powerful Lift Me Up, which feels borne out of the loss everyone felt when Chadwick Boseman passed away. However, RRR took the world by storm last year and given this is its sole nomination, it feels nailed on the Academy will recognise this accomplishment with an Oscar.

Will Win: RRR

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte
Avatar: The Way of Water – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges
The Batman – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson
Elvis – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller
Top Gun: Maverick – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor

So often, this category and editing go hand-in-hand, yet given the likely winner of Best Editing is nowhere to be found here, this award is a choice between the brutal sounds of trench warfare, the musical sounds of the King of Rock and Roll or the thunderous sounds of military aircraft, with the aircraft taking the trophy.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Avatar: The Way of Water – Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
Babylon – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Elvis – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
The Fabelmans – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

The Academy usually loves films about Hollywood. While Babylon‘s divisiveness could scupper its chances of winning Original Score, it is unlikely to prevent it from taking this award given it has swept all before it this awards season.

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: Babylon

Should have been nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – Darius Khondji
Elvis – Mandy Walker
Empire of Light – Roger Deakins
Tár – Florian Hoffmeister

When you consider some of the breathtaking cinematography we saw in 2022, this year’s selection of nominees is decidedly uninspiring and there are some major major snubs which boggle the mind as to why they weren’t included. Roger Deakins’s status as a legend is assured, and it is a given he will be nominated almost every time he shoots a film, there were more deserving nominations this year. Elvis’ Mandy Walker becomes the third woman to be nominated for this award and while it would be historic to see her win, yet my money is on another win for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Though the snub for Claudio Miranda for Top Gun: Maverick feels particularly baffling when you consider when filming the aerial combat sequences, they were reliant on natural lighting to shoot them, not to mention the extraordinary camerawork. Plus, last year’s winner of this award Greig Fraser’s work in The Batman to capture the murky underworld of Gotham City was equally deserving of a nomination.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should have been nominated: Claudio Miranda for Top Gun: Maverick, Linus Sandgren for Babylon or Greig Fraser for The Batman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Success in this category can often correlate with a win in one of the acting categories. This year, it could come down to whichever actor the Academy chooses to honour in Best Actor, which puts this as a coin flip between Elvis or The Whale. Given who I think will win Best Actor, my bet is going to give this one to The Whale.

All Quiet on the Western Front – Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
The Batman – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
Elvis – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti
The Whale – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley

Will Win: The Whale

Should Win: The Whale

Best Costume Design

Babylon – Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth Carter
Elvis – Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Shirley Kurata
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Bevan

Ruth Carter’s win for the first Black Panther film at the 91st Academy Awards was a historic win, and if she were to repeat her triumph, she would become the first black woman to win two Oscars in any category, which is just utterly mind-boggling. However, Catherine Martin’s work in Elvis to recreate so many of the King’s iconic costumes is some incredible work which would be worthy of a victory to add to her victories in this category for Baz Luhrmann’s previous films The Great Gatsby and Moulin Rouge!

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should have been nominated: Gersha Phillips for The Woman King and Jenny Eagan for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
Elvis – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers
Tár – Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton

It is usually the case that editing and sound categories correlate. Yet, could this be the year which breaks that trend? Top Gun: Maverick had the unenviable task of editing through several hundred hours of footage they shot for the aerial combat sequences, which would have put it in a good position to fly home with the win. But, the editing in Everything Everywhere All At Once is equally impressive. While one assumes they did not have to edit through several hundred hours of footage, due to the nature of its plot and its ambition, the film could have very easily become a jumbled mess had the editing not been as on point as it was. Either would be a worthy winner, but the power of the multiverse should help EEAAO prevail.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar
Avatar: The Way of Water – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
The Batman – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick
Top Gun: Maverick – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher

The combination of the sheer visual majesty of Pandora and the pioneering technology developed for those breathtaking underwater scenes means there should only be one winner here.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Director

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Todd Field – Tár
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

For the last two years, we’ve seen women triumph in this category, which makes it all the more frustrating that women again find themselves shut out of this category, especially when you look at the quality of the films which were directed by women last year, there were certainly more than a few candidates who could have got in, such as Gina Prince-Bythewood, Sarah Polley, Maria Schrader or Chinoye Chukwu.

The Academy does have a tendency to nominate at least one international director, but had they nominated Edward Berger for All Quiet on The Western Front instead of Östlund, this might have been a very different race given the former’s success at BAFTA. Given his semi-autobiographical film may not triumph anywhere else, this could be the best chance to honour Steven Spielberg with his first Oscar since he won this very same award for Saving Private Ryan in 1999. However, with their triumph at the Directors Guild Awards, and the fact their film threw everything at the wall and somehow made it all work to wonderful effect, this is the Daniels’ to lose.

Will Win: The Daniels

Should Win: The Daniels

Could have been nominated: Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King, Sarah Polley for Women Talking or Maria Schrader for She Said

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living

For the first time since the 7th Academy Awards in 1935, all the nominees in this category are receiving their first nominations. This is heartwarming to see particularly for an actor like Bill Nighy whose nomination is deserving but also feels like a culmination of his decades-long career. However, both Nighy’s and Paul Mescal’s chances of a win seem unlikely as throughout this awards season, this race has been dominated by the remaining three gentlemen in this category.

Austin Butler’s performance as The King of Rock and Roll was so transformative, he disappeared into the role and the Academy has had a tendency for rewarding transformative performances of that nature. Farrell had a superb 2022 with his work in After Yang, Thirteen Lives, his villainous turn in The Batman, and to top it all off his excellent work in Banshees. However, his unexpected loss at the BAFTAs to Butler means his hopes of Oscar glory now look to be remote at best, which puts this award in a straight fight between Butler and Fraser. Like Ke Huy Quan, Fraser has a comeback narrative on his side, and while The Whale has divided audiences, no one can deny Fraser’s performance was truly impactful and the six-minute standing ovation at the Venice Film Festival is a testament to this. Plus with his win at the SAG awards and the over-arching sentiment that everyone seems to have towards him, it could tip this award in Fraser’s favour but this feels too close to call.

Will Win: Brendan Fraser

Should Win: Brendan Fraser

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett – Tar
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

For the second year in a row, this is the acting category which is, by far and away, the most chaotic. Last year, all of the nominees starred in films which were not nominated for Best Picture, but this year the Academy chose chaos for a different reason.

Let’s start with the positives. It is fantastic to see Michelle Yeoh (somehow) bagging her first nomination for her truly incredible work in Everything Everywhere All At Once, a performance which encapsulates her extraordinary career. Her namesake Michelle Williams’s turn as a supportive mother to the on-screen representation of Steven Spielberg in The Fabelmans perfectly captured how the compassion and warmth of his mother encouraged him to want to pursue his passion for filmmaking. However, while she is great in the film, it does feel a bit of a mistake to have campaigned for her in lead, given the fierce competition from her namesake as well as Cate Blanchett’s excellent leading performance in Tar.

But, now onto the negatives, Ana De Armas is a phenomenal actress who I have admired ever since her performance in Blade Runner 2049. But, while her turn as Norma Jean/Marilyn Monroe is by far and away the best thing about Blonde, the film’s fictionalised treatment of Monroe left a very bad taste in my mouth. It was nearly three hours of relentless trauma and misery which had nothing meaningful to say and for that it should not have been bestowed with a nomination.

And lastly, Andrea Riseborough’s nomination for her work in To Leslie came as a massive surprise given she picked up none of the precursor nominations. Her campaign was by and large driven as a result of some of her peers campaigning on her behalf. This is so frustrating because it proves even when women of colour put in exemplary performances, such as Viola Davis in The Woman King or Danielle Deadwyler’s heart-breaking performance in Till, the odds are stacked against them. Just SIX black women have been nominated for this award since Halle Berry won in 2002, it is really not good enough. If people in the industry can mobilise to push for someone like Riseborough to get a nomination, it begs the question, where is this kind of energy for women of colour? Both Davis and Deadwyler should have been nominated, with Deadwyler’s snub will go down as one of the most egregious and downright disgraceful snubs in recent memory.

But in terms of who is going to emerge victorious, it really is a coin flip between two industry veterans. Blanchett triumphed at BAFTA and Critic’s Choice, but with Yeoh’s victory at SAG, and EEAAO riding a wave of popularity which has put it in pole position to land the biggest prize of the night, it is fitting to honour the woman whose breathtaking performance is what made the film the wondrous experience it was. Yeoh deserves her dues and should become the first Asian woman, and only the second woman of colour to win this award. It is time.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh

Should have been nominated: Danielle Deadwyler for Till and Viola Davis for The Woman King or Carey Mulligan for She Said

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front – Malte Grunert
Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron and Jon Landau
The Banshees of Inisherin – Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, and Martin McDonagh
Elvis – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang
The Fabelmans – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, and Tony Kushner
Tár – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, and Scott Lambert
Top Gun: Maverick – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, and Jerry Bruckheimer
Triangle of Sadness – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober
Women Talking – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

It is very satisfying to see in a year where he had 12 uninterrupted months of films on the big screen, this year’s crop of Best Picture nominees is pretty strong, with no film really sticking out like a sore thumb being included in this year’s list. Though it definitely could have been better, with Women Talking representing the only female-directed film on the list, despite the fact there were more than enough quality films directed by women which could have very easily made the list, such as She Said and The Woman King.

But alas, even if they had been nominated, their chances of a win probably wouldn’t have been high. Throughout this awards season, there has been one clear favourite which has by and large dominated and swept all before it and that film is the masterpiece from the Daniels. It says a lot about the sheer momentum and the positivity for Everything Everywhere that has carried it all the way to the awards season given it was released early last year and not in the usual Autumn/Winter awards season window and should it add the main prize to its likely slew of trophies, it would be the best Best Picture win since Parasite‘s triumph at the 92nd Oscars.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should have been nominated: The Woman King and She Said

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Final counts

Will win:

Everything Everywhere All At Once – 5 (Picture, Actress, Director, Supporting Actor and Film Editing)
All Quiet on the Western Front – 2 (International Feature and Cinematography)
Babylon – 2 (Production Design and Score)
The Whale – 2 (Actor and Makeup and Hairstyling)
Avatar: The Way of Water – 1 (Visual Effects)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever -1 (Supporting Actress)
The Banshees of Inisherin – 1 (Original Screenplay)
Elvis -1 (Costume Design)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – 1 (Animated Feature Film)
RRR – 1 (Original Song)
Top Gun: Maverick – 1 (Sound)
Women Talking – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

Should win:

Everything Everywhere All At Once – 6 (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, Director, Supporting Actor, and Costume Design)
All Quiet on the Western Front – 2 (International Feature and Cinematography)
Babylon – 2 (Production Design and Score)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – 2 (Supporting Actress and Original Song)
Top Gun: Maverick – 2 (Sound and Film Editing)
The Whale – 2 (Actor and Makeup and Hairstyling)
Avatar: The Way of Water – 1 (Visual Effects)
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish – 1 (Animated Feature Film)
Women Talking – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

2020-2029, Awards Season, Oscars

94th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Posted on March 27, 2022March 12, 2023 by Martin: Through the Silver Screen

Well, it’s that time of year again. After the elongated awards season window of the 93rd Academy Awards due to the pandemic, the current awards season we’ve had feels somewhat shortened. But in that time, we’ve had the welcome return of cinemas, and there’s nothing better than seeing films where they belong, on the big screen. With that, a plethora of brilliant and exciting films have been recognised by the Academy this year and Hollywood’s biggest night is once again upon us.

Last year’s scaled-down ceremony was a controversy-free event, until the ending when a change-up of the presenting order meant it all went very badly wrong. This year, the controversy has almost been ever-present as the absolutely nonsensical idea of presenting some of the categories off-air has been resurrected. Spoiling the moment of glory for those prospective winners and denying them their moment in the spotlight. A ceremony that honours the craft of movies and movie-making should be giving every recipient of an Oscar a chance to have their moment in the spotlight and this decision does a disservice to all those nominees.

Despite this ridiculous decision, there are still 23 golden statues up for grabs, the question remains as to who will claim Oscar glory? Time to have a gaze at my metaphorical crystal ball and give my predictions, as well as give my thoughts on each category, minus the documentaries and the short films.

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Kicking things off is a race that, for the third year in a row, has seen double nominees from the same film, after Judas and the Black Messiah and The Irishman. Apart from previous winner J.K. Simmons’s nomination, the rest of the pack are picking up their first nominations. Simmons’s nomination in Being the Ricardos is a sign that Aaron Sorkin’s latest film is well-loved by the Actors branch, but given that Ricardos is the only one without a Best Picture nomination, Simmons’s chances of a repeat win are extremely unlikely, especially as he’s very much bringing up the rear in this crop of performances. Plemons does great work, but he’s very much outshone by his co-stars. Ciarán Hinds’s beautiful turn as the cheeky Grandpa in Belfast would be a worthy winner, as would his co-star Jamie Dornan, who really should have been nominated ahead of Simmons for my money.

However, throughout this race, it’s very much been a battle between CODA‘s Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee’s layered work in The Power of the Dog. CODA‘s ensemble win at the SAG awards could tip the scales in Kotsur’s favour. He would make history as the first male deaf actor to win an Oscar, and his turn as the raunchy but heartfelt father in CODA was hilarious and emotional, he was able to break your heart with just one word.

Will Win: Troy Kotsur

Should Win: Troy Kotsur

Could have been nominated: Jamie Dornan for Belfast

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Judi Dench – Belfast
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

As was the case with Supporting Actor, there’s one performance that can be discounted right out of the gate, as her film lacks a Best Picture nomination, which is a shame as Jessie Buckley’s work in The Lost Daughter outshines her co-stars. Kirsten Dunst has finally landed a nomination, and it’s quite fitting that she’s nominated the same year that her husband Jesse Plemons receives his first nomination. To go toe-to-toe with Will Smith is not an easy feat but Aunjanue Ellis’s performance manages exactly that. Judi Dench’s turn in Belfast was a welcome return to form for her after appearing in a couple of critical and commercial flops, but with eight nominations under her belt, she didn’t need another nomination, especially when her co-star Caitriona Balfe had the more emotionally impactful role which was much more deserving of a nomination.

However, there’s been one performance that has emerged as the clear favourite. Ever since West Side Story was finally opened to audiences, Ariana DeBose’s performance as Anita has swept all before her. It’s quite poetic that 60 years after Rita Moreno’s historic win in this very same category, playing the same character, that history will repeat itself. DeBose will also become the first openly queer actress to win this award. This is an exceedingly competitive category, but Ruth Negga’s brilliant and nuanced work in Passing being overlooked is a massive head-scratching snub.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose

Should Win: Ariana DeBose

Could have been nominated: Catriona Balfe for Belfast or Ruth Negga for Passing

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast – Written by Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
King Richard – Written by Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World – Written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Along with his nominations for Best Picture, and Best Director, Kenneth Branagh has written himself into Oscars history as the first person to be recognised in seven separate categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Live-Action Short). It’s an extraordinary achievement for Branagh and he deserves to crown that with an Oscar for his beautiful semi-autobiographical film, especially given that he’s unlikely to triumph in the Director or Picture category. Yet there’s a chance that Licorice Pizza could rain on Branagh’s parade and end Paul Thomas Anderson’s long wait for an Oscar. Plus, The Worst Person in the World is wildly popular and could be the dark horse of this year’s race.

Will Win: Belfast

Should Win: Belfast

Should have been nominated: Fran Kanz for Mass

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA – Screenplay by Sian Heder
Drive My Car – Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
Dune – Screenplay by Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
The Lost Daughter – Screenplay by Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power of the Dog – Screenplay by Jane Campion

The first of several races this year that represents a fight between the two films that are the heavy favourites to be picking up the biggest prize of the night. The Power of the Dog was for a long time the heavy favourite for this award, but at the 11th hour, CODA charmed its way into hearts and minds and is poised to snatch several awards out of the dog’s jaws, and steal the thunder from Campion’s film, and it potentially won’t be for the first time if it does. However, the support Drive My Car is very strong and it could yet gazump everyone else in this category, and drive away with the Oscar.

Will Win: CODA

Should Win: CODA

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Animated Feature Film

Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, and Clark Spencer
Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Luca – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Kurt Albrecht
Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer, and Peter Del Vecho

An impressively strong crop of nominees, and you could make a case for each of these films to triumph. Ever since this award was first introduced in 2001, a non-Disney film has only taken home the trophy six out of twenty times. With the House of Mouse representing three of the five nominees, another Disney success is on the cards as Encanto is the strong favourite to take home the statue. However, The Mitchells Vs The Machines is such an innovative and hilarious animated film about the perils of technology that is more than capable of extinguishing Encanto‘s miracle. It makes it all the more frustrating that it likely won’t, even though I do like Encanto.

But this crop could have been even stronger, as the exclusion of Mamoru Hosada’s magnificent Belle could and, maybe should have, taken the spot of one of the three Disney films.

Will Win: Encanto

Should Win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Should have been nominated: Belle

Best International Feature Film

Drive My Car (Japan) – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Flee (Denmark) – directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen
The Hand of God (Italy) – directed by Paolo Sorrentino
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan) – directed by Pawo Choyning Dorji
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – directed by Joachim Trier

Drive My Car‘s Best Picture nominee status makes this one a pretty foregone conclusion.

Will Win: Drive My Car

Should Win: Drive My Car

Best Original Score

Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Dune – Hans Zimmer
Encanto – Germaine Franco
Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

The power of a great score is that within just a few notes, it can transport you to the setting of that particular film in a heartbeat, and no score this year typifies that than Hans Zimmer’s masterful work in Dune. 2021 was a stellar year for the legendary composer as well as reuniting with Denis Villeneuve to bring the world of Arrakis to life, his work for Daniel Craig’s final bow as James Bond in No Time To Die was also worthy of praise and could have seen Zimmer get two nominations. In either case, Zimmer’s wait for that second Oscar is coming to an end.

Someone else who also could have got two nominations is Jonny Greenwood. He has been producing some truly stellar scores over the last few years, and could and have got in this category twice for his stunning work in Spencer. His score for The Power of The Dog is tremendous, but the Power of the Dog is no match for desert power.

Will Win: Hans Zimmer

Should Win: Hans Zimmer

Could have been nominated: Harry Gregson-Williams for The Last Duel

Best Original Song

“Be Alive” from King Richard – Music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto – Music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down to Joy” from Belfast – Music and lyrics by Van Morrison
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren

Poor Diane Warren. Despite a staggering 13 nominations in this category, her wait for that first win is likely to go on, as this year’s race is looking like it will be a two-way fight between Lin-Manuel Miranda and Billie Eilish. The last two Bond films have both taken home this award, so the odds look good for Billie Eilish. However, if Miranda wins, he will become the youngest person in history to claim the EGOT. Miranda had a truly stellar 2021, and the EGOT would be the best way to reward his extraordinary achievements, especially as “Dos Oruguitas” is a heartbreakingly beautiful and emotional ballad. If it were to triumph, it would be a worthy winner to go with Encanto‘s likely Best Animated Feature Oscar.

It’s just a shame that they couldn’t nominate the irresistibly catchy and chart sensation “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” as well.

Will Win: No Time To Die

Should Win: Encanto

Best Sound

Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, and Niv Adiri
Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett
No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, and Mark Taylor
The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, and Tara Webb
West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy

Like so many technical aspects of Denis Villeneuve’s masterpiece, the sound is one of the aspects that made it such an enthralling experience on the biggest screen possible. The work of Dune’s sound team helped bring the world of Arrakis to life in such a spectacular way and so they will be richly deserved winners of this trophy.

That being said, the work of the sound teams in No Time to Die and West Side Story are very strong and could upset the spice cart.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Production Design

Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

As was the case with the Sound category, the Production Design played an integral role in bringing the visual majesty of Arrakis to life. Dune has got potential to completely sweep through these production/technical categories, and given it has picked up a couple of the precursors, I think it will do so. However, there could be some surprises and one such surprise could be here as Guillermo Del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. The fact it did get into the Best Picture race shows there is support for it out there among the voters and if the Academy wants to spread the love, then this could be the opportunity for them to do so.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Cinematography

Dune – Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski

Five absolutely immaculately shot films makes this an insanely hard category to predict, as any of these cinematographers would be worthy of winning this award. Ari Wegner makes history as the second woman to be nominated in this category following Rachel Morrison’s ground-breaking nomination for Mudbound at the 90th Academy Awards, but it could have been even better had Claire Mathon also been nominated for Spencer. A triumph for Wegner would be a welcome (and long overdue) victory. However, given that he’s recently captured plaudits for his magnificent work in The Batman, it could tip the scales in Greig Fraser’s favour.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: Claire Mathon for Spencer or Linus Sandgren for No Time To Die

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, and Carla Farmer
Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, and Julia Vernon
Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh
House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, and Frederic Aspiras

As impressive as the make-up and hairstyling work in films like House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye is, when you realise the amount of work that was required to transform Stellan Skarsgard into the villainous Baron Harkonnen in Dune, this should be a no-brainer, but if Best Actress goes in a certain direction (more on that later), this could go in a different direction.

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Costume Design

Cruella – Jenny Beavan
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini
Dune – Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan
Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

There’s some really impressive work across this category, but Cruella has been sweeping this category and those flashy and colourful dresses will power Jenny Beaven to her third Oscar.

Will Win: Cruella

Should Win: Cruella

Should have been nominated: Janty Yates for The Last Duel

Best Film Editing

Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin
Dune – Joe Walker
King Richard – Pamela Martin
The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras
tick, tick… BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Editing and the now lone sound categories often go hand-in-hand with each other, so with that in mind, Dune should be locked. Yet, Pamela Martin took home the American Cinema Editor Award in the Drama category for her work in King Richard. Meanwhile, tick, tick… BOOM! triumphed in the Comedy or Musical category, which puts it in contention. However, the lack of a Best Picture nom will probably count against the latter. Dune’s desert power will see it triumph in a number of technical categories, but the wonderful work of Pamela Martin with the tennis scenes in King Richard was absolutely pulsating to watch.

Game. Set, and the Oscar goes to King Richard.

Will Win: King Richard

Should Win: King Richard

Should have been nominated: The Last Duel

Best Visual Effects

Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristen Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer
Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick
No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver
Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick

With its status as the lone Best Picture nominee here, and an enthralling combination of practical and visual effects, there’s nothing stopping Dune, not even an itsy bitsy Spider-Man.

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Should have been nominated: The Suicide Squad

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

At the 66th Academy Awards, Campion and Spielberg went head to head in this category for Schindler’s List and The Piano respectively, with Spielberg emerging victorious. Though this time, with The Power of The Dog emerging as this year’s frontrunner, Campion is the heavy favourite to triumph here, even with some controversy following her completely unnecessary remarks against Venus and Serena Williams at the Critics Choice. ‘

This is one category where CODA cannot stop The Power of the Dog. If Campion does triumph, it would make her the third woman to win this award, and the first time two women have won this award in consecutive years. However, the absurdity of nominating Dune for just about everything else, except for the guy whose vision made it all possible is absolute madness. Hopefully, the Academy is keeping this award safe for Villeneuve for when the time comes to honour Dune: Part Two.

Will Win: Jane Campion

Should Win: Jane Campion

Could have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM!
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Throughout this awards season, there have been four names consistently cropping up in this race: Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith and Washington. All of whom are thoroughly deserving of their nominations. Washington’s performance in Macbeth is strong, but it’s not the finest performance of his career. Whereas for Cumberbatch and Garfield, this is most definitely the case. Similarly, Smith’s turn as Richard Williams, also represents some of his finest ever work.

The question as to who that fifth nominee could be was the source of much speculation. Given that the aforementioned four gentlemen have all been nominated before, there was an opportunity to hand someone their first-time nomination. Newcomer Jude Hill’s sweet and impactful debut performance in Belfast or to give Peter Dinklage’s beautiful performance in Cyrano would both have been very well deserved recipients of that nomination. Performances from giant blockbusters seldom cross into the Oscars, but a nomination for Daniel Craig for his final bow as James Bond in No Time To Die would also have been a worthy nominee. Instead, it feels like the Academy would have been a more worthy nomination than Bardem’s turn in Being the Ricardos, a nomination that’s just so safe and boring, that it’s extremely unsatisfying.

Yet irrespective of who that fifth nominee was in the end, it matters not because it will be the third time’s the charm for Will Smith, as nothing will stop him from collecting his first Oscar for his magnificent work portraying Richard Williams in King Richard.

Will Win: Will Smith

Should Win: Will Smith

Should have been nominated: Jude Hill for Belfast or Peter Dinklage for Cyrano

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Last year, this award was one of the most exciting and unpredictable races, and it looks like history is repeating itself. This year’s race is proving to be equally chaotic. With no one having the advantage of their film being a Best Picture nominee, it’s an extremely open race. However, unlike last year, this particular race feels quite weak by comparison.

Ever since Spencer first screened, Stewart was widely seen as the frontrunner, and fully deservingly so for her mesmerising and transformative turn as Princess Diana. Yet that early momentum evaporated, and there were question marks as to whether she would even secure that nomination, which would have been one of the biggest snubs in Oscars history. Cruz’s work in Parallel Mothers was a deeply powerful performance that even without their films getting Best Picture nominations, and also without picking up any of the precursor nominations, these performances are thoroughly deserving of their nominations. Jessica Chastain certainly goes all in with her Eyes of Tammy Faye performance, but ultimately it feels like a performance that’s a bit too flashy and is a case of style over substance.

Kidman’s nomination is probably the most deserving out of the three Ricardos nominations, but likewise, with her two co-stars, her nomination feels so uninspiring due to the sheer blandness of the film around her. The Academy clearly loves Olivia Colman, and while she was good in The Lost Daughter, she has definitely put in better performances in her career. Ultimately, the nominations of Colman and Kidman feel like nominations that are based purely on their name, and that’s really disappointing as the Academy really should have recognised the work from some of the Best Picture nominees, like Rachel Zegler from West Side Story or Emilia Jones from CODA, both of whom were far more deserving of nominations than Colman or Kidman.

But, like Will Smith, this is Chastain’s third nomination. She’s picked up a couple of the precursor awards, and if Tammy Faye takes home the Hair and Makeup Oscar, this could align for the first Oscar for Chastain. But honestly, it’s anyone’s guess.

However, what also really stings is the lack of nominations for actresses Jodie Comer and Tessa Thompson, whose fierce and powerful performances in films like The Last Duel and Passing respectively both utterly blow the majority of the competition out of the water.

Will Win: Jessica Chastain

Should Win: Kristen Stewart

Should have been nominated: Jodie Comer for The Last Duel, Tessa Thompson for Passing or Emilia Jones for CODA

And, last and certainly by no means least…

Best Picture

Belfast – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, and Tamar Thomas
CODA – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, and Patrick Wachsberger
Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
Drive My Car – Teruhisa Yamamoto
Dune – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve, and Cale Boyter
King Richard – Tim White, Trevor White, and Will Smith
Licorice Pizza – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, and Paul Thomas Anderson
Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Bradley Cooper
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, and Roger Frappier
West Side Story – Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

It’s so pleasing to see the Academy complete the full set by giving ten films their moment in the spotlight, though some are far less deserving than others in this regard. It’s a joy to see such a mainstream juggernaut like Dune be a fierce competitor, and while it would be my choice this year, one hopes that the Academy will bestow all the awards when the time comes to honour Dune: Part Two. Parasite’s victory two years ago has opened doors for international features, and so it’s a joy to see films like Drive My Car get in the Best Picture race, though it will be great when there’s more than one international film in the race.

Netflix has been fiercely competing for its first Best Picture win over these last few years, and despite making a plethora of amazing films to try and bag that elusive Best Picture Oscar, it has not yet happened. With the most nominees this year, it was looking likely for a while that The Power of the Dog would become the first Netflix film to take home the Best Picture statute. However, Apple TV’s CODA has emerged at what has felt like at the last minute to potentially rain on Netflix’s parade. The fact that these two films are the front runners, and that they’re both directed by women, is worthy of celebration. This really could go either way.