Here we are, at the end of another awards season, with Hollywood’s biggest night and all the stars come together for the ultimate celebration of film at the 98th Academy Awards. This year’s ceremony will be the usual glitzy and glamorous affair it always is, but it will also act as a welcome distraction from the absolute chaos of the world we live in right now, and I am sure returning host Conan O’Brien will have ripe material about that and more to allow audiences around the world to laugh, forget that chaos for several hours, and of course to hand out some Oscars and change lives forever.

With the exciting addition of a new category for Best Casting, there are 24 Oscars up for grabs. Who will be clutching one of those priceless golden status and write their name into the history books? Time to gaze into my crystal ball and predict who will emerge triumphant…

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio del Toro  – One Battle After Another 
• Jacob Elordi  – Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo  – Sinners
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another 
• Stellan Skarsgård  – Sentimental Value

We begin with the first acting category and a very interesting race as three of these nominees are first-time nominees, with Jacob Elordi picking up his first nomination at 28 years old and at the other end of the scale, Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgård picking up their first nods at 73 and 74 years old respectively. Lindo’s nomination is particularly welcome, given that he was an absolute scene stealer in Sinners and was egregiously snubbed for his incredible work in Da 5 Bloods, while a prolific actor like Skarsgård receiving his first nomination is also kind of crazy but richly deserved.

However, the obstacle for all these gentlemen is the fact that they’re up against the two actors who star in the Best Picture frontrunner. Del Toro’s Sensei was definitely the calmer presence in One Battle After Another, alongside the evil, menacing Colonel Lockjaw. Skarsgard won the Golden Globe, while Elordi won the Critics’ Choice, Penn won BAFTA and the Actors Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards), which puts him in with a good chance of prevailing. It is a menacing performance, but given the current occupant of the White House and the fact that Penn may not even attend the ceremony, this is a prime opportunity to give the other nominees, especially Lindo or Skarsgård, the recognition they deserve for their performances across their careers.

Will Win: Sean Penn

Should Win: Delroy Lindo

Could have been nominated: Paul Mescal for Hamnet

Best Costume Design

• Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
• Frankenstein – Kate Hawley 
• Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
• Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
• Sinners – Ruth E. Carter 

Given that a lot of the costumes seen in Avatar: Fire and Ash were presumably added in as part of the CGI, this nomination feels a little strange, as there were so many other worthy costume designs worthy of recognition. But alas, it wouldn’t have mattered, because the resplendent costumes in Frankenstein frankly blow the competition out of the water. Though if last year’s winner, Paul Tazewell, had been in contention here as he should have been, this could have been an interesting race.

Will Win: Frankenstein

Should Win: Frankenstein 

Should have been nominated: Paul Tazewell for Wicked For Good

Best Original Score

• Bugonia  – Jerskin Fendrix 
• Frankenstein  – Alexandre Desplat
• Hamnet  – Max Richter
• One Battle After Another  – Jonny Greenwood
• Sinners – Ludwig Göransson

In 2019, Ludwig Göransson won his first Oscar for his score in Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther. After picking up his second in 2024 for Oppenheimer, how fitting it will be to see him claim his third Oscar in seven years for his incredible work on Sinners. Given how central music is to the premise of Sinners, despite excellent work from all the other nominees, this award is really a no-brainer.

Will Win: Ludwig Göransson

Should Win: Ludwig Göransson

Best Sound

• F1  – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
  
• Frankenstein  – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
• One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
• Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
• Sirat – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas

Anytime a film features racing cars or thunderous modes of transport, it usually does very well in this category, as it is the flashiest work on display. So even though there is a chance the incredible work of the Sinners team could get recognition, given how integral sound is to the film, I back F1 to take the chequered flag.

Will Win: F1 

Should Win: Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
• Kokuho  – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
• Sinners  – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
• The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
• The Ugly Stepsister  – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Given the extraordinary length of time that it took to turn the incredibly attractive Jacob Elordi into Frankenstein’s monster, this is another slam-dunk win for Frankenstein, though again, Wicked For Good being left out here is another head-scratching omission.

Will Win: Frankenstein 

Should Win: Frankenstein

Should have been nominated: Wicked For Good

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Bugonia – Written by  Will Tracy
• Frankenstein – Written by  Guillermo del Toro 
• Hamnet – Written by  Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell 
• One Battle After Another  – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
• Train Dreams – Written by  Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Five Best Picture contenders, five very strong screenplays. However, with the other Best Picture frontrunner in the other writing category, there will only be one winner. There may be a hint of an overdue narrative at play, given his distinguished contributions to cinema over the years, but Paul Thomas Anderson has won every precursor going, so it would be a seismic shock if he doesn’t end his long wait for Oscar gold.

I would love to see Hamnet or Frankenstein pull off an upset, but I just don’t see it happening.

Will Win: One Battle After Another 

Should Win: Frankenstein

Should have been nominated: No Other Choice 

Best Original Screenplay

• Blue Moon – Written by Richard Linklater 
• It Was Just an Accident  – Written by  Jafar Panahi (in collaboration with Shadmehr Rastin, Nader Saïvar, and Mehdi Mahmoudian)  
• Marty Supreme  – Written by  Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie  
• Sentimental Value – Written by  Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier 
• Sinners  – Written by Ryan Coogler 

Much like with the Adapted Screenplay category, this one is a sure bet for the other Best Picture frontrunner. Sinners is Ryan Coogler’s magnum opus, and given the likely way Best Picture and Best Director will turn out, this will be the Academy’s chance to richly reward him for his incredible screenplay.

Will Win: Ryan Coogler 

Should Win: Ryan Coogler

Best Supporting Actress

 

• Elle Fanning  – Sentimental Value 
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas  – Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan – Weapons 
• Wunmi Mosaku  – Sinners
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another 

To the other supporting category, and similarly, this one has the potential for a twist. With the exception of Amy Madigan, who makes Oscars history as the gap between her first nomination in 1985’s Twice in a Lifetime and her second sets a record for the longest gap between nominations for an actress, while the other four are all picking up their first nominations.

Between her work in Sentimental Value and a memorable turn in Predator Badlands, 2025 was a memorable year for Fanning, but her nomination did come as a bit of a welcome surprise but she won’t triumph here. Her Sentimental Value co-star Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas also has little chance, meaning it is a toss-up between the other three ladies.

Taylor gave a tour de force performance in OBAA, absolutely dominating the first 30 minutes to leave a lasting impression on the rest of the film, and is sorely missed for the rest of the runtime. Madigan’s performance as Aunt Gladys (I am seriously never trusting anyone I meet with that name ever again) was instantly memorable, and Wunmi Mosaku’s brilliant turn as Annie, the love interest of one of the Smokestack twins, enabled her to be vulnerable but fierce where necessary, especially in the film’s bloody third act.

Taylor had momentum early on following her Golden Globe win, but that momentum has stalled, allowing Mosaku to claim the BAFTA on home soil and Madigan to claim the Critics’ Choice and Actors awards, so the momentum is with the latter, which leads me to believe she might just triumph. But this is a very close call.

Will Win: Amy Madigan 

Should Win: Wunmi Mosaku

Could have been nominated: Ariana Grande for Wicked For Good

Best Original Song

• “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
• “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters  – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, Teddy, and Ian Eisendrath
• “I Lied To You” from Sinners  – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
• “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
• “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave

Chalk up another nomination for Dianne Warren, as it is a given that she will feature in this category every year, 17 now and counting. Yet again, though, this is not going to be the year that ends her wait for Oscars gold, as the irresistibly catchy “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters and the song from that jaw-dropping past and future scene in Sinners are the competition standing in her way. Given how integral it is to the film’s plot, I would love to see Sinners triumph, but it’s hard to look past the fact that “Golden” has surpassed 1.5 billion streams on Spotify, a feat that will be fittingly rewarded with a golden Oscar statue.

Will Win: Kpop Demon Hunters 

Should Win: Kpop Demon Hunters

Best Film Editing

• F1 – Stephen Mirrione
• Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
• Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
• Sinners – Michael Shawver

So often in the past, editing and sound have gone hand in hand. However, over the last three years, the winner of this award has correlated with the winner of the Best Picture, as Anora, Oppenheimer, and Everything Everywhere All at Once won this award to go with their hauls for the evening. My heart wants to see Sinners win, purely for the juke joint dance scene where the past and future collide, as that editing was masterful. But, with its status as the Best Picture frontrunner, I unfortunately think the trend of this award winner taking the Best Picture will continue.

Will Win: One Battle After Another 

Should Win: Sinners 

Best Production Design

• Frankenstein  – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
• Hamnet  – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
• Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
• One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

What could have been another battle between the gothic era of Frankenstein and the fantastical world of Oz of Wicked For Good… 

Since that match-up didn’t transpire, this will be another richly deserved win for Frankenstein, though Sinners could potentially be a dark horse in this race.

Will Win: Frankenstein 

Should Win: Frankenstein

Best International Feature Film

• It Was Just an Accident (France)  – directed by Jafar Pahani 
• The Secret Agent (Brazil)  – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
• Sentimental Value (Norway)  – directed by Joachim Trier 
• Sirat (Spain)  – directed by Oliver Laxe
• The Voice of  Hind Rajab (Tunisia)  – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania

In a battle between the two Best Picture contenders, Brazil could make history by making it back-to-back wins, but given the Hollywood element of Sentimental Value and the fact it has more overall nominations than The Secret Agent, that will probably be enough to help it clinch the Oscar and ensure it doesn’t go home empty-handed.

However, the sheer power and devastating urgency of The Voice of Hind Rajab, a film that utterly broke me after seeing it at last year’s London Film Festival, makes me hope it pulls off an upset, as it is a film everyone must watch. Free Palestine.

Will Win: Sentimental Value

Should Win: The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature Film

• Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman
• Elio – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm
• Kpop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon
• Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino

Ever since this category was first awarded at the 74th Oscars in 2001, there have been only nine occasions when a film not released by Disney or its subsidiary Pixar emerged triumphant, including for the last three successive years, where Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Boy and the Heron, and Flow all usurped the House of Mouse. Disney has the fact that the second-highest-grossing film of 2025 in its favour, but with its likely win in Best Original Song, Kpop Demon Hunters will ensure that streak continues. It will be a golden night for Sony Pictures, Netflix, and the Huntrix ladies, who will be going up, up, up on that stage to collect that Oscar.

Will Win: Kpop Demon Hunters 

Should Win: Kpop Demon Hunters 

Best Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
• F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
• Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
• The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
• Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean

Every time an Avatar film is released, it’s like a cheat code for this category. The story in this latest entry in James Cameron’s box office behemoth might have left a bit to be desired, but the visual effects, even though we have seen them before, are still impressive enough to carry it to the win.

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should have been nominated: Fantastic Four: First Steps

 

Best Cinematography

• Frankenstein – Dan Lausten 
• Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji 
• One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman 
• Sinners  – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
• Train Dreams  – Adolpho Veloso

In some years when this category has flattered to deceive, this is emphatically not the case this year, as each and every one of these nominees put in some truly stunning work, and any one of them would be a very worthy winner. However, Autumn Durald Arkapaw has some history on her side, as not only did she become the fourth woman to be nominated for this award, but she also became the first woman of colour to be nominated. It is looking likely that this will again come down to a battle between the two Best Picture frontrunners, but I am going to go with my gut and say the Academy will make history and make Arkapaw the first woman to win in this category. It is well past time that this particular glass ceiling was shattered.

Will Win: Sinners 

Should Win: Sinners

Best Casting

• Hamnet – Nina Gold 
• Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti 
• One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
• The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
• Sinners – Francine Maisler 

This year’s brand new category, and a well overdue one at that. Casting is such an integral part of the filmmaking process, and if it doesn’t work out, an entire film can fall apart. This could really go in any direction, as there’s no precedent, so I’m going with my heart on this one and hoping this is another Oscar to add to Sinners‘ collection.

Will Win: Sinners 

Should Win: Sinners

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme 
• Leonardo DiCaprio  – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners 
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

“In pursuit of greatness”, the words of Timothée Chalamet last year after winning Best Actor at last year’s Actors Awards, formerly SAG awards. With his nomination this year, Chalamet becomes the youngest actor to earn three acting nominations since a certain Marlon Brando. Having won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice, it looked for all the world as though he would fulfil his goal of achieving greatness and take the Oscar. But a lot can happen over the course of an awards season, and since Chalamet unexpectedly lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo for I Swear and Michael B Jordan in the Actors Awards, the race has been turned on its head.

Has the momentum turned in Jordan’s favour? Had voting been open when Chalamet made his ill-advised comments denigrating two other art forms in ballet and opera, it is almost certain that they would have cost him dearly, but since voting was finished, it might not have an impact. As much as Chalamet turned in an excellent performance to make you root for a character who is so thoroughly unlikeable, Jordan put in twice the amount of work as he played two characters, and there were subtle nuances to his performances to distinguish the Smokestack twins besides the way they dressed. The whole film would have fallen apart if Jordan’s performances as both Smokestack twins hadn’t been extremely charismatic.

Given that the aforementioned comments are unlikely to have had an impact, my hunch is that, despite the late surge in momentum for Jordan, it will not be enough to deny Chalamet the Oscar, but it could come down to a coin flip. It would be very unlikely, but since DiCaprio remains a popular figure in the industry, and with his leading role in the Best Picture frontrunner, it could lead to him pipping both his competitors to the post, what absolute chaos that would be!

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet 

Should Win: Michael B. Jordan 

Best Director

• Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
• Josh Safdie –  Marty Supreme 
• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value 
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners  

Aside from being the only woman nominated, Chloe Zhao’s nomination also makes history as only the second female filmmaker to receive two nominations for Best Director, which is absolutely crazy and shows there is still a lot of work to be done. But yet again, this is a race that comes down to the two powerhouse filmmakers who, if my predictions are right, will have already won in their respective writing categories. Unfortunately, despite my heart wanting Coogler to win, PTA has dominated this awards season and, crucially, won at the Directors Guild Awards, so will likely add Best Director to his Best Adapted Screenplay win.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Should Win: Ryan Coogler

Could have been nominated: Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein 

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet 
• Rose Byrne– If I Had Legs I’d Kick You 
• Kate Hudson – Song Song Blue 
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone – Bugonia 

Unlike Best Actor, which feels like it could swing in one of two directions, there is no chance of this happening in the Best Actress race. With this, marking her seventh nomination in both acting and producing, Stone has become the youngest woman to reach this milestone, beating Meryl Streep of all people. Is Stone the new Streep? Having come just a few years after her win in Poor Things, Stone is not likely to join that exclusive club of winning three acting Oscars. But given the frequency with which she has been getting nominated, it is only a matter of time.

From the moment this awards race began, to sweep or not to sweep, that is the question? Jessie Buckley’s powerful and gut-wrenching performance in Zhao’s Shakespearean tragedy has swept throughout, and it would be an earth-shattering shock if she doesn’t complete the sweep and take home the Oscar. She has come a long way since finishing second in a BBC talent show in 2008 and has been delivering Oscar-calibre performances for years now, from I’m Thinking of Ending Things, to The Lost Daughter, Women Talking and now Hamnet.  This will be her richly deserved moment.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Should Win:  Jessie Buckley

Could have been nominated: Chase Inifiniti for One Battle After Another

Best Picture

• Bugonia  – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen
• F1  – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer
• Frankenstein  – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber, producers
• Hamnet  – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes
• Marty Supreme  – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet
• One Battle After Another  – Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Secret Agent  – Émilie Lesclaux
• Sentimental Value  – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar
• Sinners  – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler
• Train Dreams – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler

Click here to see my ranking of the Best Picture contenders.

It is quite fitting, in a year that has seen Warner Bros. become the subject of a fierce battle between two rival studios to acquire it, that two of its films have been the frontrunners for the top prize all awards season long. I hope Paramount is watching, because if they are to succeed in their quest to acquire WB, they should pay attention to what the studio is currently doing, allow filmmakers like Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson to do their thing, and not interfere.

I think it is pretty clear that I have nailed my colours to the mast with my preference for Sinners to win here. It was my favourite film of 2025, and I believe it is the better of the two frontrunners; its record-breaking haul of 16 Oscar nominations attests to its beloved status in the industry. Though I fully understand that no film released in 2025 tapped into the cultural zeitgeist and the state the United States of America is in as a country, more so than One Battle After Another. I’m hoping Sinners can pull off an upset, but regardless of who wins or loses, both films have left a lasting impression on audiences and will be remembered for generations to come.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: Sinners

Should have been nominated: No Other Choice 

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Final counts

Will win:

• One Battle After Another- 5 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay  and Editing) 
• Sinners – 4 (Original Screenplay, Score, Cinematography  and Casting)  
• Frankenstein – 3 (Costumes, Makeup and Hairstyling,  and Production Design)  
• Kpop Demon Hunters – 2 (Animated and Original Song)  
• Avatar: Fire and Ash – 1 (Visual Effects) 
• F1 – 1 (Sound) 
• Hamnet – 1 (Leading Actress) 
• Marty Supreme – 1 (Leading Actor) 
• Sentimental Value – 1 (International) 
• Weapons – 1 (Supporting Actress) 

Should win:

• Sinners – 11 (Picture, Director, Leading Actor, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Score, Sound, Cinematography, Editing, and Casting)  
• Frankenstein – 4 (Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Makeup and Hairstyling,  and Production Design)  
• Kpop Demon Hunters – 2 (Animated and Original Song)
• Avatar: Fire and Ash – 1 (Visual Effects) 
• Hamnet – 1 (Leading Actress) 
• The Voice of Hind Rajab – 1 (International)